Equinor Slumps 2.9%—Is the LNG Outage Dragging Down the Energy Giant?

• Equinor (EQNR) plunges to $26.31, a 2.9% drop from yesterday’s close of $27.10
• Transocean secures new drilling contract with Equinor in Norway, but shares remain pressured
• Hammerfest LNG outage extended until July 29, cutting 6.5B cubic meters of annual capacity

Equinor’s sharp intraday decline traces to dual pressures: an extended maintenance outage at its critical Hammerfest LNG terminal and broader sector weakness. The stock trades near its 30-day support band (25.05–25.14) after swinging between $27.12 and $26.31 today, reflecting market skepticism about near-term production resilience.

LNG Outage and Sector Headwinds Fuel the Drop
Equinor’s slide is directly tied to two factors. First, the extended maintenance outage at its Hammerfest LNG terminal—Europe’s largest—until July 29 threatens to reduce annual gas exports by 6.5 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 5% of Norway’s total output. This disruption adds to supply concerns in a tight European energy market. Second, broader sector malaise drags the stock down: oil prices hover near $80 amid mixed global demand signals, while the sector’s leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) also slips 1.7%. The combination of operational uncertainty and weak sector momentum outweighs positive news like Transocean’s new drilling contract, which only reinforces existing projects rather than driving immediate volume growth.

Oil & Gas E&P Sector Weakens as Equinor Lags Peers
Equinor underperforms the broader Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector today, which mirrors the 1.7% decline in Exxon Mobil (XOM). While oil prices flirt with $80 on China’s industrial data, traders remain cautious about lingering geopolitical risks—like Russia’s shadow tanker fleet—and slower LNG export growth. Equinor’s specific exposure to Hammerfest’s outage amplifies its downside relative to peers with more diversified production profiles.

Bullish MACD vs Bearish Bollinger—Options to Target the Break
Bullish MACD (0.399 vs 0.367) hints at short-term momentum, while Bollinger Bands (Upper 28.43, Middle 26.31, Lower 24.18) signal support at 24.18 and resistance at 28.43. The RSI (44.11) sits in neutral territory, suggesting a consolidation phase.

Top Contracts:
1. EQNR20250718P26.42 (Put, Strike 26.42)
- Implied Volatility: 24.34%
- Leverage Ratio: 75.26%
- Delta: -0.54 (54% chance of ITM)
- Theta: -0.15 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.53 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Why it shines: Near-the-money strike with high gamma/gamma makes this ideal for a 5% downside scenario. A drop to $25 would yield a 1.42 strike differential, while its 75% leverage amplifies returns.

2. EQNR20250815P25 (Put, Strike 25)
- Implied Volatility: 28.05%
- Leverage Ratio: 69.32%
- Delta: -0.27 (27% chance of ITM)
- Theta: -0.02 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.15 (moderate responsiveness)
- Why it’s strong: A safer bet for a gradual decline below $25. Turnover of 2,017 contracts ensures liquidity, and the 28% IV offers cushioning against volatility shocks.

Hook: Aggressive bears should layer positions in EQNR20250718P26.42 if the stock breaches $25.05 support—this puts the Bollinger Lower Band in crosshairs.

Backtest Equinor Stock Performance
The backtest of EQNR's performance after a -3% intraday plunge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 50.79%, indicating a roughly even chance of a positive return in the short term, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 54.60% and 48.89%, respectively. This suggests that although EQNR has a decent chance of recovering from an intraday plunge, longer-term returns are more variable.

Equinor Faces Crossroads: Outage Resolution or Sector Drag?
Equinor’s fate hinges on two variables: resolving the Hammerfest outage by late July and sector rebound from $80 oil resistance. The stock’s 30-day support band (25.05–25.14) is critical—if breached, the 200-day MA at $24.25 could become the next battleground. Meanwhile, Exxon’s 1.7% drop (XOM) highlights sector-wide fragility. Investors should monitor the Hammerfest restart timeline and U.S. LNG export data. Action now: Fade the dip to $25.05 with EQNR20250718P26.42—exit if oil prices surge past $82 or the outage is resolved ahead of schedule.