Candlestick TheoryEquinor's recent candlestick pattern exhibits a pronounced bullish momentum, with seven consecutive white candles culminating in a 15.48% surge over the past week. The 2025-06-13 session closed near its high ($27.75 vs. high $27.80), forming a bullish Marubozu-like candle indicating sustained buying pressure. Resistance is now established at the psychological $28.00 level (last tested in July 2024), while support converges at the breakout point near $26.40 – the previous resistance from early June. The absence of upper shadows in recent sessions underscores the strength of the current uptrend.
Moving Average TheoryThe 50-day moving average has decisively crossed above both the 100-day and 200-day averages, confirming a Golden Cross formation. Current price ($27.75) trades substantially above all three key averages (50D/100D/200D), with the ascending 50-day MA ($24.90) providing dynamic support. The expanding distance between the 50-day and 200-day MAs indicates accelerating bullish momentum. This multi-timeframe alignment signals a robust intermediate-term uptrend, though the rapid price departure from the 50-day MA suggests potential near-term mean reversion risk.
MACD & KDJ IndicatorsMACD shows a strengthening bullish posture, with the histogram expanding for seven consecutive sessions above the signal line. Current readings (MACD: 0.85, Signal: 0.72) reflect growing upward momentum. The KDJ oscillator presents a more cautionary signal: While the %K (89) and %D (85) lines remain in bullish territory, they hover near overbought thresholds. Notably, the divergence between MACD’s continued acceleration and KDJ’s potential exhaustion near extreme levels warrants monitoring for early reversal signals.
Bollinger BandsPrice has consistently hugged the upper Bollinger Band (20-period, 2SD) throughout the 7-day rally, indicating powerful upside momentum. The bands themselves have expanded significantly (Bandwidth increasing 38% since June 6), confirming rising volatility supportive of trend continuation. Historically, such persistent upper-band riding precedes either extended breakouts (as seen in October 2024) or sharp but temporary reversions to the 20-period moving average ($26.10). No band squeeze is currently evident.
Volume-Price RelationshipVolume confirms the bullish price action, with notable accumulation during critical breakout sessions. The June 10 breakout above $25.35 occurred on 3.28M shares (37% above 30-day avg), while the June 13 surge to new highs registered 6.60M shares – the highest single-session volume since February 2025. This expanding volume on ascending prices demonstrates strong institutional participation. However, the slightly reduced volume during the most recent sessions may indicate near-term exhaustion as the rally matures.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)The 14-day RSI now stands at 78, deep within overbought territory. While this reading often precedes pullbacks in neutral markets, its significance is tempered during strong trends. The current reading resembles the February 2025 peak (RSI 80), which saw a 9% correction. Crucially, no bearish divergence is present yet: The RSI continues making higher highs alongside price. Traders should note this warns of elevated short-term risk while recognizing that overbought conditions can persist during powerful trends.
Fibonacci RetracementApplying Fibonacci levels to the major downtrend from the July 2024 high ($30.91) to the October 2024 low ($21.41) reveals significant confluences. The current price has breached the 61.8% retracement level ($26.92), converting it to support. The next major resistance appears at the 78.6% level ($29.27), closely aligned with the psychologically significant $30.00 threshold. Notably, the 50-day MA ($24.90) coincides with the 38.2% retracement, creating a high-probability support zone should a pullback materialize.
Synthesis & Confluence PointsMultiple indicators reinforce Equinor's bullish posture: The Golden Cross formation, volume-backed breakout above $26.40, and MACD acceleration collectively signal sustainable upward momentum. Critical confluence exists at $26.90-$27.00, where the breakout point, 61.8% Fibonacci level, and rising 20-day MA converge to create strong support. However, the overbought RSI (78), extended Bollinger Band positioning, and potential KDJ bearish crossover create near-term caution. The clearest divergence lies between the RSI's overbought warning and MACD's continued bullish expansion. Probabilistically, this suggests a minor consolidation or pullback to test $27.00 support may precede any challenge of the $29.27 resistance. A decisive close below $26.40 would invalidate the immediate bullish structure.
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