Equinor Plummets 2.56%—Is the LNG Outage or AI Frenzy to Blame?

• EQNR trades at $26.41, down 2.56% from previous close of $27.10
• Transocean secures new Equinor drilling contract in Norwegian Sea
• Hammerfest LNG terminal extension delays through July 29
• Sector leader ExxonMobil (XOM) slips 1.3%, but Equinor’s drop outpaces peers

Equinor’s midday slump reflects a clash of near-term operational hurdles and broader energy sector uncertainty. The stock’s $0.70 decline—testing support near $26—comes amid conflicting signals: a Transocean contract win versus a critical LNG facility’s prolonged maintenance. Technicals suggest a test of $25.05 support looms, while traders parse geopolitical risks as AI infrastructure bets dominate headlines.

LNG Outage and Tariff Uncertainty Weigh on EQNR
Equinor’s slide stems from two clear catalysts: the extended Hammerfest LNG outage and lingering uncertainty around U.S. energy policy. The Melkoeya facility’s 10-day delay—pushing restart to July 29—costs ~6.5 billion cubic meters of annualized exports, directly crimping cash flows. Meanwhile, Transocean’s contract win, while positive, is overshadowed by broader sector concerns. Reports suggest Trump-era LNG export tariffs could reshape European energy sourcing, creating a ‘toll booth’ dynamic for U.S. firms. Equinor’s lack of exposure to this trend—and its heavy reliance on Norwegian Sea projects—leaves it vulnerable to geopolitical shifts.

Sector Slump Outpaces Equinor’s Drop—But Not By Much
The oil & gas sector’s decline is broadly shared, with ExxonMobil’s 1.3% drop underscoring industry-wide headwinds. However, Equinor’s 2.56% drop reflects its unique risks: the Hammerfest outage accounts for ~5% of Norway’s gas exports, and its delayed restart directly impacts third-quarter guidance. While sector peers like Chevron (CVX) face North Sea asset sales, Equinor’s challenges are more operational than strategic. The stock’s underperformance vs. sector ETFs (XLE down 1.1%) signals investors are pricing in near-term supply disruptions.

Betting on Bounces or Breaks: EQNR Options Spotlight
Rsi: 44.11 (Undervalued Zone)
Bollinger Bands: Upper $28.43 | Middle $26.31 | Lower $24.18
MACD: 0.399 vs Signal 0.367 (Bullish Cross Imminent)

Technicals suggest a test of $25.05-$25.14 support, with resistance at $26.31 (middle band). Aggressive buyers could dip into the July $26.42 Put—a ‘sweet spot’ contract—while cautious traders await a Hammerfest restart update.

Top Picks:
1. EQNR20250718P26.42: Strike $26.42 | Delta -0.50 | Gamma 0.445 | Theta -0.151 | Turnover 1,374
• ‘Perfect Storm’ option: High gamma (sensitive to price swings) and theta (time decay accelerates) make this ideal for a $25.05 breach. A 5% price drop to $25.10 yields $1.32 intrinsic value—25% premium upside.
2. EQNR20250815P25: Strike $25 | Delta -0.267 | Gamma 0.139 | Theta -0.0206 | Turnover 2,095
• ‘Safety Net’ play: Low delta reduces volatility risk, while turnover ensures liquidity. If support holds at $25.05, this contracts gains ~$0.95 intrinsic value—48% return.

Hook: ‘Fade the LNG outage with EQNR20250718P26.42 if $25.05 breaks—aim for $24.42 strike.’

Backtest Equinor Stock Performance
The backtest of EQNR's performance after a -3% intraday plunge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 50.79%, indicating a roughly even chance of a positive return in the short term, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 54.60% and 48.89%, respectively. This suggests that although EQNR has a decent chance of recovering from an intraday plunge, longer-term returns are more variable.

Equinor’s Crossroads: LNG Restart or Tariff Turn?
Equinor’s $26.41 price hangs between operational clarity and geopolitical noise. The August $25 put (EQNR20250815P25) is a must-watch for support tests, while the July $26.42 put targets a $25.05 breakdown. With ExxonMobil (XOM) down 1.3% but stabilizing, Equinor’s path hinges on two pivots: 1) Hammerfest’s July 29 restart proving timely, and 2) U.S. LNG tariff clarity post-November elections. Traders should brace for volatility—watch for $24.42 lows and $27.12 resistance. Action: Fade the near-term gloom with puts, but stand ready to pivot if Equinor’s Norwegian projects regain favor.