Equinor Slides to 26-Month Low: What's Driving the Selloff?

• EQNR plunges -2.4% to $25.74, nearing 2023 lows at $21.41
• Hammerfest LNG maintenance outage drags shares lower premarket
• 15.1M buyback completion reported, owning 0.94% of shares
• Technicals: Bollinger Bands squeeze tightens below $26.31 midline

Equinor’s intraday slump to a 26-month trough mirrors broader sector jitters, amplified by operational hiccups and a technical breakdown below key support. The Norwegian energy giant’s shares now trade 2.4% lower after a premarket plunge linked to extended LNG maintenance, testing investor patience amid its $3.88B buyback program.

Hammerfest LNG Outage Drags Production Prospects Lower
The 1.25% premarket plunge and subsequent $0.64 intraday drop stem directly from Equinor’s announcement of extended maintenance at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG facility. This critical Arctic export hub’s downtime reduces near-term production volumes, potentially squeezing margins as repairs delay output. The news amplifies existing concerns over energy infrastructure reliability in a post-peak-demand world, with traders pricing in lost revenue from one of Europe’s largest LNG export terminals.

Bullish Bounces Meet Bearish Puts: EQNR Options Playbook
• Technicals:
- Bollinger Bands (20-day): Upper $28.43 / Lower $24.18 (current price $25.74)
- RSI 48.93 (neutral)
- MACD 0.39 vs Signal 0.37 (bullish crossover imminent)
- 200-day MA $24.26 (key support)

Aggressive traders should watch $24.25 30-day support - a break triggers bearish momentum toward $22.996. Near-term resistance sits at $26.64 (200-day MA zone). The buyback program’s completion adds uncertainty as share count reduction may offset operational headwinds.

Top Option Picks:
1. EQNR20250815P25 (Put, Strike $25)
- IV 28.12%, Leverage 46.85%, Delta -0.359
- Theta -0.0252/day, Gamma 0.173
- Turnover $1,087 (high liquidity)
- Why: Best risk/reward for downside targeting $24.25 with 37.5% premium upside. Gamma exposure amplifies gains on price drops.

2. EQNR20250815P26 (Put, Strike $26)
- IV 26.96%, Leverage 25.77%, Delta -0.545
- Theta -0.0318/day, Gamma 0.191
- Turnover $2,310 (most active put)
- Why: Prime hedge for $25-26 support breakdowns. Theta decay accelerates as August expiration nears, rewarding timely entries.

Payoff Example (5% downside to $24.50):
- P25 payoff: $0.50 intrinsic value + premium = 37.5% return
- P26 payoff: $1.50 intrinsic value + premium = 33.3% return

Bearish traders should enter P25/P26 spreads before $24.25 support tests. Bullish alternatives consider EQNR20250815C24 calls (delta 0.655) for rebounds above $26.31.

Backtest Equinor Stock Performance
The backtest of EQNR's performance after a -2% intraday plunge shows mixed results, with varying win rates and returns over different time frames. Here's a detailed analysis:1. Short-Term Performance: - The 3-day win rate is 50.63%, indicating that approximately half of the time, the stock rebounds within 3 days, with an average return of 0.05%. - The 10-day win rate is slightly higher at 54.43%, with an average return of 0.12% over that period.2. Long-Term Performance: - The 30-day win rate is 48.73%, suggesting a moderate probability of recovery over a longer period, with an average return of 0.14%. - The maximum return during the backtest was 0.28%, which occurred on day 9, indicating that while there is a chance of recovery, the gains are generally modest.In conclusion, while there is a reasonable probability of recovery for EQNR after a -2% intraday plunge, the returns are generally modest, with the maximum return being only 0.28% over the backtested period. This suggests that while the stock may bounce back, investors should not expect high returns immediately following such a significant drop.

Watch the $24.25 Bottom Line - Buybacks vs. LNG Headwinds
Equinor’s technicals suggest a critical juncture at $24.25 - a break here risks retesting 2023 lows. While the buyback program signals confidence, operational challenges at Hammerfest LNG underscore execution risks. Sector leader Exxon (XOM) also faces -0.8% pressure, indicating broader upstream weakness. Traders should prioritize puts below $25 while monitoring LNG restart timelines. Action: Sell P25 puts at $24.25 support or fade rallies above $26.64 with P26 short puts.