Equinor (EQNR) Shares Drop 3.77% to 2025 Low Amid Rising Costs, Empire Wind Delays, Bearish Forecasts

Equinor (EQNR) shares slid 3.77% on Friday, marking a three-day decline of 8.59% and hitting a new low since May 2025, with an intraday drop of 3.90%. The stock’s recent weakness reflects a confluence of operational headwinds, regulatory challenges, and shifting market dynamics that have eroded investor confidence in the energy giant’s near-term outlook.

Analysts highlight rising project costs as a key pressure point. The Johan Castberg project’s budget surged by NOK13 billion due to inflation and supply chain delays, while the Eirin gas field’s development remains contingent on timely execution. Meanwhile, Equinor’s $2.5 billion acquisition of a stake in Ørsted has drawn scrutiny for its cash flow implications, diverting resources from core operations at a critical juncture.

Strategic risks further cloud the outlook. The U.S. Empire Wind project, a cornerstone of Equinor’s renewable ambitions, faces a regulatory delay until 2030 after the Department of the Interior halted construction. With projected returns of 4–8% and $5 billion in capital at stake, the project’s uncertain trajectory raises concerns about potential impairments. Similarly, exploration of a $1 billion asset sale in Azerbaijan signals a strategic recalibration amid volatile energy markets.

Financial forecasts have turned bearish. RBC Capital Markets downgraded Equinor to “underperform” in late September, citing rising leverage—expected to jump to 23% by year-end—and softening gas prices. The firm warns that European gas oversupply and reduced Asian demand could compress free cash flow, curbing buybacks and dividend sustainability. With buybacks projected to halve by 2026, long-term investors may seek safer alternatives.

Despite these challenges, Equinor’s renewable energy pivot offers a counterbalance. The launch of its floating wind farm in Norway and subsea innovation partnerships position it to benefit from the energy transition. However, scaling these initiatives at competitive costs remains unproven. For now, the stock’s trajectory hinges on resolving project delays, stabilizing leverage, and navigating a fragile gas market. Until these uncertainties abate, Equinor’s shares may remain vulnerable to profit-taking and risk-off sentiment.