Equatorial Resources Soars 5.44% on Arbitration Closure and Sector Optimism: Is This the Dawn of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Equatorial Resources (EQX) surges 5.44% to $13.475, nearing 52-week high of $13.53
• Arbitration hearing with Congo finalized, AGM announcement sparks investor optimism
• Turnover jumps to 2.57M shares, signaling renewed institutional interest
• Sector peers like BHP and Nucor show mixed momentum amid global trade policy shifts

Equatorial Resources has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, driven by the completion of its ICSID arbitration hearing and strategic corporate updates. With the stock trading near its 52-week peak and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the market is recalibrating its stance on this iron ore explorer. The move coincides with broader steel sector volatility, as global trade dynamics and regulatory developments reshape risk profiles.

Arbitration Closure and AGM Optimism Fuel EQX's Bullish Surge
Equatorial Resources' 5.44% surge stems from two pivotal catalysts: the completion of its final ICSID arbitration hearing against the Republic of Congo and the announcement of its upcoming Annual General Meeting. The arbitration resolution, a long-standing overhang, removes legal uncertainty surrounding its West African iron ore projects. Meanwhile, the AGM announcement signals corporate governance progress, with shareholders likely to vote on strategic initiatives. These developments align with the company's 2025 quarterly report highlighting Guinea project advancements, creating a narrative of operational resilience in a volatile sector.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on EQX's Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day average: $8.05 (well below current price)
• RSI: 70.19 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 0.388 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $13.71 (upper) / $10.16 (lower)
• K-line pattern: Short-term bullish trend confirmed

EQX's technical setup suggests a continuation of its upward momentum, with key resistance at $13.53 (52-week high) and support at $12.97 (intraday low). The 70.19 RSI reading indicates overbought conditions, but the MACD's positive divergence and Bollinger Band positioning near the upper boundary suggest strong conviction. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA as a critical psychological level.

Top Option 1: EQX20251219C12.5
• Contract Code: EQX20251219C12.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $12.50
• Expiration: 2025-12-19
• IV: 52.35% (moderate)
• LVR: 10.35% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.738 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0267 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.180 (strong price responsiveness)
• Turnover: 15,019 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $0.7375 (max(0, 13.4751.05 - 12.5))
This contract offers high leverage with robust gamma, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $13.53. The moderate IV and liquid turnover ensure efficient entry/exit.

Top Option 2: EQX20251219C15
• Contract Code: EQX20251219C15
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $15.00
• Expiration: 2025-12-19
• IV: 51.99% (moderate)
• LVR: 58.52% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.234 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0163 (lower time decay)
• Gamma: 0.171 (strong price responsiveness)
• Turnover: 49,021 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $0.2475 (max(0, 13.4751.05 - 15.0))
This out-of-the-money call provides explosive potential if EQX breaks above $13.53, with high leverage and gamma amplifying gains in a bullish scenario. The high turnover ensures execution reliability.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bulls should consider EQX20251219C12.5 into a breakout above $13.53, while EQX20251219C15 offers high-reward potential for a sustained rally.

Backtest Equatorial Resources Stock Performance
Here is the event-study back-test you requested.Key take-aways 1. Sample size is very limited – only 2 qualifying 5 %+ intraday surges were detected between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-25. 2. On average, the stock under-performed following those surges: cumulative median return was roughly –6 % after 30 days, with several windows (4-, 5-, 6-, 7-, 10-day) showing statistically significant negative drift. 3. Because the sample is small, results should be treated as indicative rather than conclusive; adding more history or lowering the surge threshold may improve robustness.Assumptions filled in automatically • Price type: closing price (no intraday trade/quote history available). • Event definition: calendar days where the close-to-close return ≥ +5 %. • Evaluation window: 30 trading days after each event (standard setting for short-term post-event drift). • Back-test period: 2022-01-01 – 2025-11-25, matching latest available data.You can inspect the full interactive report below.Feel free to review the visual dashboard for detailed win-rate curves, return distributions, and event-by-event performance. Let me know if you’d like to adjust parameters (e.g., threshold level, look-back horizon) or explore additional tickers.

EQX at Inflection Point: Breakout or Correction? Watch These 3 Levels
Equatorial Resources stands at a critical juncture, with its 5.44% rally testing the $13.53 52-week high. The completion of its arbitration process and AGM developments create a catalyst-driven environment, but technical indicators suggest caution. Traders should monitor the $13.53 resistance level for a potential breakout confirmation and the $12.97 intraday low as a key support. The sector leader Nucor (NUE) is up 1.37%, signaling broader steel sector optimism. Investors should prioritize liquidity and leverage ratios when selecting options, with EQX20251219C12.5 and EQX20251219C15 offering the most compelling risk/reward profiles. Action: Buy EQX20251219C12.5 if $13.53 breaks, or short-term traders can scalp the $12.97 support bounce.