EQT Energy Plunges 9.55% as Death Cross Technicals Signal Extended Downtrend

EQT Energy (EQT) experienced a significant 9.55% decline in its most recent trading session, closing at $53.54 on heavy volume of 14.66 million shares. This sharp move provides critical context for the following technical assessment, which evaluates price action through multiple lenses while highlighting confluences and divergences.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal a deterioration in market structure. The abrupt 9.55% bearish engulfing candle on July 21st pierced the pivotal $55 psychological support on substantially elevated volume, confirming distribution. This follows a series of lower highs since the June peak at $60.44, establishing resistance near $59-$60. Prior rejection wicks at $59.98 (June 18th) and $59.62 (July 18th) further reinforce this resistance zone. Immediate support now rests at the July 14th reaction low of $53.47, with a breakdown potentially targeting $50-$48. The long upper wick on July 14th (closed at $58.28 vs. high $58.36) initially signaled exhaustion, preceding the recent breakdown.
Moving Average Theory
All key moving averages exhibit bearish alignment. The 50-day SMA (∼$52) crossed below the 100-day SMA (∼$54) in early July, forming a "death cross" that accelerated the downtrend. The 200-day SMA (∼$44) remains positively sloped but distant. Current price trades well below both 50-day and 100-day SMAs, confirming bearish momentum. These averages now converge near $52-$54, creating a formidable resistance cluster. Failure to reclaim this zone may sustain downward pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows accelerating bearish momentum, with the signal line maintaining distance below the MACD line and both trending negative. Histogram bars are deepening, signaling increasing downside strength. The KDJ oscillator (14,3,3) reflects oversold conditions, with the %K line (currently ∼18) below %D (∼22) and both sub-30. While this suggests potential exhaustion, neither indicator shows bullish divergence, implying oversold conditions may persist amidst strong downward momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band (20,2) expansion during the July 21st sell-off indicates heightened volatility. Price breached the lower band ($55.50 estimated), which can precede continuation moves in strong trends. Bandwidth expansion supports bearish momentum persistence. Reversion toward the midline ($56.50) may offer short-term resistance if a relief rally occurs.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakdown was validated by the highest volume in 3 months (14.66M shares vs. 30-day avg ∼8.5M), confirming conviction. Distribution days clustered near recent highs, including the July 1st -4.46% decline on 11.29M shares. Absence of accumulation volume during attempted rebounds since mid-June suggests weak demand. Sustained trade >10M shares on down days would reinforce bearish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plunged to ∼29, entering oversold territory following the sell-off. This reading reflects the sharpest momentum deterioration since the April 2025 drop. However, without bullish divergence or reversal catalysts, oversold conditions alone are insufficient to signal a bottom. Prior instances (November '24, April '25) saw RSI remain sub-30 for multiple sessions during pronounced downtrends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March 2025 swing low ($31.57) and June 2025 high ($60.44), key retracement levels emerge. The 38.2% level ($49.50) aligned with the April consolidation. The recent breakdown occurred below the 23.6% retracement ($55.80), opening path toward the 50% ($46.00) level. The 61.8% retracement at $42.50 remains the critical long-term support should selling persist. These levels coincide with historical volume nodes.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Significant confluence exists around the $52-$54 resistance zone (multiple SMA cluster, prior consolidation low, 23.6% Fib). Bearish alignment across MACD, volume, and moving averages outweighs the KDJ and RSI oversold readings, suggesting downward pressure prevails. Primary divergence noted is the absence of bullish momentum confirmation (MACD crossover, volume surge on rebounds) despite oversold oscillators, advising against premature long entry. The breach of $55 support with volume confirms bearish control, with retest of $48-$46 likely absent rapid recovery above $54.