EOG Resources Plummets 3.7% Amid Mixed Signals: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• EOG Resources (EOG) trades at $117.07, down 3.73% from its previous close of $121.60
• Analysts remain optimistic with a 4.55 average rating, but technical indicators show bearish divergence
• OPEC+ output hikes and global oversupply fears weigh on energy stocks

EOG Resources is trading near its 52-week low of $102.52 amid conflicting signals. While analysts highlight global energy expansion opportunities in Colombia and Nigeria, bearish technical patterns like RSI overbought and a Marubozu candle suggest weakening momentum. The stock’s intraday range of $117.04–$120.57 reflects volatile investor sentiment as OPEC+ output increases threaten oil prices.

OPEC+ Output Hikes and Bearish Technicals Weigh on EOG
The sharp decline in EOG Resources stems from a confluence of bearish technical signals and macroeconomic headwinds. OPEC+’s decision to increase oil output by 411,000 bpd in July has triggered oversupply concerns, pressuring energy prices and EOG’s revenue model. Technically, the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average ($122.11) and faces resistance at the 50-day SMA ($120.22). A Marubozu white candle on recent charts indicates a strong upward move followed by potential reversal risks. Additionally, RSI (55.01) and Williams %R (overbought) suggest overextended conditions, while divergent institutional flows—negative large-institutional inflows versus mixed small-cap flows—highlight uncertainty.

Oil & Gas Sector Under Pressure as EOG Trails Sector Leader XOM
The Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector is broadly underperforming, with sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 2.85% intraday. EOG’s 3.73% decline outpaces XOM’s selloff, reflecting its vulnerability to technical deterioration and OPEC+ volatility. While XOM’s larger scale and diversified operations provide some insulation, EOG’s exposure to global supply dynamics and its current price near 52-week lows make it more susceptible to near-term corrections. The sector’s leveraged ETFs (data unavailable) would typically amplify such moves, but EOG’s standalone technicals remain the primary driver here.

Options Playbook: Leveraged Bets on EOG Amid Volatility
• 200-day MA: $122.11 (below) • RSI: 55.01 (overbought) • Bollinger Bands: 114.31–125.84 • MACD: 1.13 (bullish) • Support: 114.31–119.32

Key levels to monitor include the 52-week low ($102.52) and the 200-day SMA ($122.11). Short-term bearish momentum suggests a test of the lower Bollinger Band at $114.31, with potential for a rebound if the 119.32 support holds. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays for bearish scenarios:

• EOG20250912P117 (Put): Strike $117, Expiry 2025-09-12, IV 22.81%, Leverage 89.73%, Delta -0.4357, Theta -0.0263, Gamma 0.0991, Turnover 2,128
- High leverage and moderate delta position this put for gains if EOG breaks below $117. A 5% downside to $111.22 would yield a payoff of $5.78 per contract.
• EOG20250912P114 (Put): Strike $114, Expiry 2025-09-12, IV 25.31%, Leverage 235.09%, Delta -0.1998, Theta -0.0448, Gamma 0.0635, Turnover 1,752
- Strong gamma and turnover make this put ideal for volatility. A 5% drop to $111.22 would generate a $10.78 payoff per contract.

Aggressive bears may consider EOG20250912P117 into a breakdown below $117, while EOG20250912P114 offers liquidity and leverage for a deeper correction.

Backtest EOG Resources Stock Performance
I have completed an event-study back-test on EOG Resources (EOG.N) covering 1 January 2022 through 5 September 2025, focusing on days when the share price suffered an intraday plunge of at least –4 %.Key points you may wish to note: • Only two such large plunges occurred during the sample period, so the statistical power is limited. • Over the subsequent 30-trading-day observation window, the average cumulative return turned positive after day 12 and exceeded +7 % by day 30, but none of the daily figures reached conventional statistical significance given the small event count. • The win-rate (percentage of events with a positive cumulative return) improved from 0 % on day 1 to 100 % on day 30.You can review the full interactive report below.Methodological note: intraday data were not available, so an approximate proxy was used—days when the closing price fell 4 % or more versus the previous day’s close.

Bullish Fundamentals vs. Bearish Technicals: What to Watch Next
EOG Resources faces a critical juncture where strong analyst optimism clashes with deteriorating technicals. While global energy expansion and a 77.4% net profit margin suggest long-term resilience, the current bearish RSI, Marubozu pattern, and OPEC+ oversupply risks demand caution. Investors should watch the $114.31 support level and the sector leader XOM (-2.85%) for directional clues. A pullback to the 52-week low could present a buying opportunity if technicals align with fundamentals. For now, prioritize defensive positioning and await clearer signals before committing capital.