Energy Vault Outlook: Mixed Signals Amid Growing Sector Volatility

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Energy Vault (NRGV.N) remains in a wait-and-see mode technically, as bullish and bearish signals balance out, despite a recent 23.70% price increase.

News Highlights

Recent news from the construction equipment sector highlights both opportunities and risks. A May 28 report by ICEMA suggested the sector may grow double-digits in FY26, driven by rising project execution momentum. On the flip side, a May 31 report revealed the EU’s strong concerns over U.S. plans to double steel and aluminum tariffs, potentially disrupting bilateral trade and increasing costs for infrastructure-linked companies like Energy Vault.

Separately, Tornado Infrastructure Equipment reported a 5.1% revenue increase year-over-year in Q1, showing sector-wide resilience. However, Energy Vault itself has not seen such positive earnings momentum, which could raise questions about its growth trajectory in the near term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst landscape for Energy Vault is sparse but telling. Goldman Sachs’ analyst Brian Lee recently issued a Strong Sell rating on the stock, and his historical record shows a 100% win rate (though with a negative average return of -12.26%). This contrasts with the stock’s 23.70% rise in recent weeks, indicating a mismatch between analyst sentiment and current price action.

Our internal diagnostic scores offer a more nuanced view:

• Average (simple mean) rating: 1.00 (Strong Sell)
• Weighted (performance-adjusted) rating: 1.39
• Rating consistency: Dispersed, with no consensus
• Alignment with price trend: Mismatched—price is rising despite pessimistic expectations

Key Fundamental Factor Values

Here’s how Energy Vault stacks up on key financial metrics, along with internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Net cash flow from operating activities / Operating revenue (%): 1.83% (internal score: 0.00)
• Net profit margin (%): -164.65% (internal score: 0.00)
• Annualized net profit margin on total assets (%): -47.48% (internal score: 0.00)
• Asset-MV: -0.52 (internal score: 6.89)
• Cash-MV: -3.20 (internal score: 6.89)

Money-Flow Trends

Big money remains cautious on Energy Vault, with large and extra-large investors showing a negative trend. However, retail investors (small-cap flows) are positive, with an inflow ratio of 50.10%. Overall, the inflow ratio stands at 47.29%, suggesting mixed participation. Big-money players—holding larger blocks—show a 47.08% inflow ratio but remain bearish. This indicates that while small investors are pushing in, institutional money is still wary.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Energy Vault is in a neutral zone, with both bullish and bearish indicators active. The MACD Death Cross and Dark Cloud Cover patterns are strong bullish indicators, scoring 7.14 and 8.43 respectively (both internal diagnostic scores). However, the Long Lower Shadow (score: 2.09) and Long Upper Shadow (score: 6.15) suggest volatility and indecision.

Looking at recent patterns: On January 5, a Long Lower Shadow appeared on the chart, echoing prior signals seen on January 2, December 31, and December 30. These patterns suggest the stock may be bouncing between key resistance and support levels, with no clear breakout in sight.

Our technical score is 5.95 (internal diagnostic score), reflecting a wait-and-see stance. Momentum remains volatile, and short-term signals are balanced—traders are advised to keep a close eye on upcoming market developments.

Conclusion

Energy Vault is caught in a tug-of-war between technical neutrality and a recent sharp price rise. With mixed analyst signals, a bearish big-money stance, and a volatile chart, the stock is best approached with caution. Investors are advised to wait for a clearer directional signal before committing capital. Keep an eye on the next earnings report and the unfolding trade-war dynamics, as these could tilt the balance in either direction.