Energy Fuels Skyrockets 10.95%—Can This Rare Earth Surge Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• Energy Fuels (UUUU) surges 10.95% to $10.43, hitting an intraday high of $10.44
• First U.S. production of 99.9% pure dysprosium oxide at pilot scale announced
• Commercial-scale heavy rare earth separation planned for Q4 2026
• Turnover jumps 3.01% on 6.78M shares traded

Energy Fuels is riding a rare earths renaissance as its breakthrough dysprosium oxide production sparks investor frenzy. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $10.74, the company’s strategic pivot toward non-Chinese supply chains has ignited a 10.95% intraday rally. The move coincides with global supply chain anxieties and China’s tightening rare earth quotas, positioning UUUU at the forefront of a critical minerals revolution.

Dysprosium Breakthrough Ignites Investor Optimism
Energy Fuels’ 10.95% surge stems from its historic production of 99.9% pure dysprosium oxide at pilot scale, a first for the U.S. market. The company’s CEO emphasized this achievement as a 'major leap' toward securing domestic heavy rare earth oxide supply for defense and energy applications. With pilot production now yielding 2kg/week and plans for commercial-scale separation by Q4 2026, investors are betting on UUUU’s potential to disrupt China-dominated supply chains. The news arrives as Beijing tightens quotas on rare earth exports, amplifying demand for U.S.-produced alternatives.

Rare Earth Sector Volatility Intensifies as China Tightens Grip
The rare earth sector is in flux as China imposes stricter quotas on mining and smelting, including imported raw materials. This regulatory shift has pushed U.S. producers like Energy Fuels into the spotlight. Sector leader MP Materials (MP) rose 1.89% on the day, reflecting broader investor appetite for domestic alternatives. However, UUUU’s 10.95% move outpaces peers, driven by its unique position in heavy rare earths—a niche where U.S. supply remains scarce. Brazil’s stalled U.S. collaboration and Malaysia’s push for downstream magnet production further highlight the sector’s geopolitical stakes.

Options Playbook: Leverage Gamma and Theta for Short-Term Gains
• 200-day average: $5.80 (well below current price)
• RSI: 55.3 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.34 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $10.47 (upper), $9.50 (middle), $8.54 (lower)

Energy Fuels is trading near its 52-week high with a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish setup. Key support at $9.50 (middle Bollinger) and resistance at $10.47 (upper Bollinger) define the immediate range. The 55.3 RSI suggests momentum is intact but not overbought, while the MACD’s 0.34 level indicates bullish divergence. Aggressive bulls should target a break above $10.47, while cautious traders may short on a pullback to $9.50.

Top Options Picks:
• UUUU20250829C10 (Call, $10 strike, 8/29 expiry):
- IV: 93.69% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 14.65% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.60 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0639 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2715 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 49,655 (high liquidity)
- Why it stands out: High gamma and theta make this call ideal for a sharp move above $10.47. A 5% upside to $10.95 would yield a payoff of $0.95 per contract, with leverage amplifying returns.

• UUUU20250829C10.5 (Call, $10.5 strike, 8/29 expiry):
- IV: 108.23% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage: 18.64% (high)
- Delta: 0.47 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0642 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.2424 (strong sensitivity)
- Turnover: 3,970 (solid liquidity)
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma position this call to capitalize on a breakout above $10.50. A 5% upside to $10.95 would generate a $0.45 payoff, with IV compression adding tailwinds.

Backtest Energy Fuels Stock Performance
The backtest of UUUU's performance after an 11% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 49.40%, the 10-day win rate is slightly higher at 51.64%, and the 30-day win rate is 54.92%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 14.19%, which suggests that while there is a good chance of positive returns, the potential for large gains is limited.

Rare Earth Revolution: Now Is the Time to Act
Energy Fuels’ 10.95% surge is more than a technical rally—it’s a strategic inflection point in the global race for critical minerals. With China tightening its grip on supply and U.S. demand for defense-grade dysprosium surging, UUUU’s pilot production and Q4 2026 commercial plans position it as a key player. Investors should monitor the $10.47 upper Bollinger level and $9.50 support. For sector exposure, MP Materials (MP) rose 1.89%, but UUUU’s momentum suggests it could outperform. Aggressive traders may consider the UUUU20250829C10 call for a breakout play, while hedgers should short on a pullback to $9.50.