Energy Fuels Plummets 15.68% Amid Rare Earth Export Controls and Earnings Jitters

Summary
• Energy Fuels (UUUU) plunges 15.68% to $18.02, erasing $3.35 from its value in under three hours.
• Export Finance Australia’s conditional support for the Donald Project sparks mixed investor sentiment.
• Q3 earnings expectations loom as a critical catalyst for near-term volatility.

Energy Fuels’ stock has imploded amid a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions, regulatory uncertainty, and earnings skepticism. The rare earths and uranium producer, already reeling from China’s export curbs, faces renewed pressure as investors digest its Q3 earnings outlook and the conditional nature of its Australian financing. With a 52-week high of $27.33 now a distant memory, the stock’s intraday range of $17.94 to $20.25 underscores the market’s fractured confidence.

Rare Earth Export Controls and Earnings Jitters Trigger Sharp Selloff
The selloff is driven by a confluence of factors: China’s ongoing rare earth export restrictions, which have stifled global supply chains, and Energy Fuels’ recent conditional financing announcement for its Donald Project. While the Export Finance Australia (EFA) letter of support offers a lifeline, its conditional nature has failed to reassure investors. Compounding this, the company’s Q3 earnings report—set for imminent release—has triggered speculative selling ahead of potentially disappointing results. Analysts note that Energy Fuels’ reliance on rare earths and uranium, both subject to geopolitical volatility, amplifies its exposure to macroeconomic headwinds.

Rare Earths Sector Volatile as U.S. Supply Chain Initiatives Gain Momentum
The rare earths sector remains a battleground for U.S. strategic interests, with Energy Fuels competing against peers like MP Materials (MP), which recently fell 9.55%. While MP’s partnership with Apple and Pentagon funding offers a counterpoint, Energy Fuels’ lack of immediate production capacity for heavy rare earths (HREEs)—despite pilot-scale efforts—has left it lagging. The sector’s broader volatility reflects global efforts to diversify supply chains, but Energy Fuels’ reliance on regulatory approvals and export dynamics makes it a riskier bet than more vertically integrated rivals.

Bearish Options Play Amid Elevated Volatility: UUUU20251031P18.5 and UUUU20251107P18
• MACD: 1.96 (Signal Line: 2.20, Histogram: -0.24) indicates bearish divergence.
• RSI: 60.30 suggests neutral momentum but warns of potential oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $18.02 sits near the lower band ($13.60–$26.38), signaling oversold territory.
• 200-day MA: $8.05 (far below current price), highlighting long-term bullish potential.

Energy Fuels’ technicals paint a mixed picture: short-term bearish but long-term bullish. Key support levels at $16.49 and $4.35 (200-day range) suggest a potential rebound if the stock avoids a breakdown below $17.94. However, the 52-week low of $3.20 remains a critical watchpoint. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• UUUU20251031P18.5 (Put, $18.5 strike, Oct 31 expiry):
- IV Ratio: 135.16% (elevated volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 12.67% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.538 (sensitive to price drops)
- Theta: -0.0237 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1396 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 126,618 (liquid)
This put option offers a high-gamma, high-IV play for a 5% downside scenario. At $18.02, a 5% drop to $17.12 would yield a payoff of $0.38 per contract, with leverage amplifying returns.

• UUUU20251107P18 (Put, $18 strike, Nov 7 expiry):
- IV Ratio: 146.83% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 9.47% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.446 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0456 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0826 (modest sensitivity)
- Turnover: 23,415 (liquid)
This contract balances high IV with manageable gamma, ideal for a mid-term bearish bet. A 5% drop would trigger a $0.82 payoff, leveraging the stock’s oversold technicals.

Hook: If $17.94 breaks, UUUU20251031P18.5 offers a high-gamma, high-IV bearish play.

Backtest Energy Fuels Stock Performance
It turns out that, between 1 Jan 2022 and 27 Oct 2025, Energy Fuels (UUUU) never experienced a single trading day in which its intraday low was at least 16 percent below that same day’s opening price (i.e., an “-16 % intraday plunge” under the usual definition Low / Open – 1 ≤ -0.16). Because the event list is empty, the event-backtest engine cannot generate any post-event statistics or visualisations, which is why the run failed.How would you like to proceed?1. Relax the trigger threshold (e.g., -10 % or -12 % intraday plunge). 2. Use another definition (e.g., -16 % drop from the previous close to the current day’s low). 3. Analyse a different security or period. 4. Abort the task.Let me know your preference and I’ll adjust the analysis accordingly.

Watch for $17.94 Breakdown or Q3 Earnings Catalyst
Energy Fuels’ selloff reflects a fragile balance between strategic potential and operational risks. While the company’s rare earths and uranium assets align with U.S. supply chain goals, its reliance on regulatory approvals and export dynamics remains a liability. Investors should monitor the $17.94 intraday low as a critical support level; a breakdown could trigger a test of the 52-week low at $3.20. Conversely, a rebound above $20.25 may attract short-term buyers betting on the 200-day MA’s long-term bullish signal. Sector leader MP Materials (-9.55%) underscores the sector’s volatility, but Energy Fuels’ unique exposure to geopolitical tensions makes it a high-risk, high-reward play. Action: Short-term bears target UUUU20251031P18.5; bulls watch for a bounce above $20.25.