Enefit Green: Riding the Renewable Surge to Baltic Dominance Amid Strategic Takeover Opportunities

Enefit Green, the Baltic region’s leading renewable energy producer, has emerged as a standout performer in Q1-Q2 2025, defying market headwinds with relentless growth in wind and solar capacity. The company’s execution of strategic projects such as the Sopi-Tootsi and Kelme I wind farms, combined with its resilience against curtailment risks and the looming Eesti Energia takeover bid, positions it as a compelling high-growth investment opportunity. Here’s why investors should act now.

Execution Strength: YoY Production Surges Signal Dominance

Enefit Green’s Q1-Q2 2025 results underscore its leadership in the Baltic renewables sector. Wind energy production rose 17% year-on-year in April 2025, while solar surged 165%, driven by new assets like the Sopi-Tootsi wind farm (contributing 69 GWh in January alone) and the Sopi solar farm. These projects, alongside Lithuania’s Kelme I wind farm, added 155.6 GWh of combined production in Q1, fueling a 25% overall electricity output increase despite February’s severe low-wind conditions.

This execution excellence is critical. The Sopi-Tootsi project, the Baltic’s largest wind farm with 38 turbines, and Kelme I’s rapid ramp-up demonstrate Enefit Green’s ability to scale quickly. By Q1 2025, the company’s total installed capacity exceeded 1,000 MW, a milestone signaling its transition from a mid-sized player to a regional powerhouse.

Curtailment Risks: A Temporary Hurdle, Not a Roadblock

While curtailments reduced April’s wind output by 28.2 GWh due to low electricity prices in Finland, Enefit Green’s long-term strategy mitigates these risks. The company has secured 433 GWh of PPAs at €65.2/MWh, locking in stable pricing despite volatile spot markets. Digital tools further optimize sales, avoiding unprofitable transactions during price slumps.

Crucially, the implied captured electricity price—now €54.5/MWh—is expected to stabilize as projects like Poland’s Strzałkowo solar farm (75% covered by a 15-year indexed CfD) come online. These agreements, paired with improved wind conditions post-February, signal a return to margin expansion as 2025 progresses.

The Eesti Energia Takeover Bid: A Catalyst for Synergies and Value Unlocking

Eesti Energia’s proposed acquisition of Enefit Green represents a transformative opportunity. The deal would combine Enefit Green’s renewable capacity with Eesti Energia’s existing grid infrastructure and thermal assets, creating a vertically integrated Baltic energy giant. Key synergies include:
- Grid Access: Eesti Energia’s grid reduces curtailment risks by enabling better distribution of renewable energy.
- Diversification: Eesti Energia’s fossil fuel operations hedge against renewable market volatility, while Enefit Green’s growth assets provide long-term scalability.
- Cost Savings: Shared operational efficiencies could cut EBITDA losses (which fell to €31m in Q1 due to price discounts) by up to €10m annually.

Why Invest Now? A High-Growth, Undervalued Play

Enefit Green’s stock currently trades at a discount to its peers, reflecting short-term headwinds like curtailments and price declines. However, the Eesti Energia bid—expected to close by year-end—could unlock 20%+ upside as synergies materialize. With a 25% production growth runway and a pipeline of projects (including Kelmė II and offshore wind partnerships), the company is poised to dominate the Baltic renewables market.

The takeover also reduces standalone risks: integration with Eesti Energia’s grid and thermal assets de-risks curtailments and market volatility. For investors, this is a rare chance to buy into a high-growth, strategically positioned asset at a post-peak price.

Conclusion: The Baltic’s Renewable Future Starts Here

Enefit Green’s Q1-Q2 performance validates its status as a Baltic renewables leader. While curtailments and price dips pose near-term challenges, its asset execution, PPA-driven stability, and the Eesti Energia bid’s synergies make it an irresistible investment. With renewable energy demand set to surge across Europe and the Baltic grid modernization underway, now is the time to capitalize on this undervalued, high-growth story.

Act now—before the market catches up to Enefit Green’s Baltic dominance.