ENA Faces 69.08% Breakeven Resistance Amid 10.51% Open Interest Surge

Ethena [ENA] has been trading within a steep descending channel since late 2024, which has suppressed every bullish attempt at recovery. The price is currently testing the upper boundary of this structure near $0.36, slightly above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is positioned at $0.3479. Historically, this trendline has rejected upside moves, but the current consolidation around resistance signals potential breakout momentum. A daily close above $0.37 could pave the way toward $0.45 and possibly higher. However, confirmation will depend on volume expansion and follow-through past $0.41, where large resistance clusters remain.

Despite recent stability, ENA remains under significant pressure from trapped holders. Only 5.53% of wallets were in profit, while 25.39% were out of the money. A staggering 69.08% were sitting at breakeven near the press time price zone between $0.34 and $0.41. This creates a thick layer of psychological resistance, as many holders may sell into strength to break even or limit losses. Consequently, even if the price breaks out technically, it must overcome this heavy supply zone. This distribution risk could mute any rally unless demand accelerates meaningfully in the near term.

In the past 30 days, whale holdings have dropped by 3.63%, suggesting large entities are reducing exposure. Meanwhile, mid-tier investors and retail participants are increasing their share, rising by 19.15% and 10.44%, respectively. This trend points to rising confidence from smaller players. However, the lack of strong whale participation could reduce breakout strength unless new large buyers emerge. Therefore, while the crowd appears bullish, true momentum often requires heavyweight backing. It remains to be seen if retail enthusiasm alone can overpower resistance and spark a convincing breakout from the channel.

At the time of writing, ENA recorded $10.53 million in spot outflows against only $7.83 million in inflows. This continues a broader trend of more tokens leaving exchanges than entering. Historically, consistent outflows signal growing investor confidence and reduced immediate sell pressure. Therefore, this shift supports the bullish case, especially if sustained. However, these movements must align with price action for a meaningful breakout. If accumulation continues while supply tightens, it could eventually force a price repricing higher, provided broader market conditions don’t turn risk-off.

Open Interest for ENA rose by 10.51% to $484.47 million, indicating growing activity in derivatives markets. This uptick reflects renewed speculative interest and suggests traders are positioning for a major move. If price breaks above resistance, the existing short positions could get squeezed, fueling a sharp rally. However, high Open Interest also raises the risk of increased volatility in both directions. Therefore, while this metric supports the idea of a coming breakout, it also underscores the need for cautious optimism until confirmation arrives through price and volume alignment.

ENA sits at a pivotal moment. If bulls overcome channel resistance and suppress heavy sell pressure near breakeven zones, the token could aim for $0.45 and beyond. However, without whale backing and given the large number of underwater holders, success hinges on sustained inflows, continued accumulation, and clean breakout confirmation above $0.41.