Emerging UK Air Cargo Player One Air and Its Strategic Expansion in the Global Freight Market

The global air freight sector in 2025 is a landscape of paradoxes: surging demand from e-commerce and industrial supply chains collides with capacity constraints, geopolitical volatility, and sustainability pressures. Amid this turbulence, One Air, a UK-based air cargo player, has positioned itself as a strategic innovator, leveraging digital transformation, sustainability, and targeted market expansion to navigate the fragmented sector. For investors, the question is whether these initiatives can translate into durable growth in a market projected to grow at a 5% CAGR but plagued by pricing pressures and regulatory headwinds.

Digital Transformation: A Pillar of Operational Resilience

One Air’s 2025 strategy hinges on digital innovation to address inefficiencies in cargo tracking, route optimization, and customer engagement. According to a report by the Globalia Logistics Network, air freight companies are prioritizing AI, blockchain, and IoT to enhance real-time visibility for temperature-sensitive goods, a critical differentiator in a sector where delays cost millions [1]. One Air’s adoption of AI-driven predictive analytics for demand forecasting and dynamic pricing aligns with this trend, enabling it to outmaneuver competitors in volatile trade lanes. For instance, its blockchain-based cargo tracking system, piloted in Southeast Asia, has reduced transit errors by 18% and improved client retention in high-value pharmaceutical shipments [2].

However, digital transformation is not without risks. The initial capital outlay for AI and IoT infrastructure is substantial, and smaller players may struggle to keep pace. Yet, One Air’s partnerships with tech firms like DHL’s Globalia Logistics Network provide access to shared platforms, mitigating costs while accelerating adoption [3].

Sustainability as a Competitive Edge

Sustainability is no longer a peripheral concern but a core driver of market positioning. The European Union’s 2% SAF mandate for 2025 and the U.S. SAF Grand Challenge’s long-term targets have forced carriers to recalibrate their fuel strategies [4]. One Air’s early commitment to SAF, coupled with its investment in electric cargo aircraft prototypes, positions it to meet regulatory demands while appealing to eco-conscious shippers. For example, its 2025 SAF-powered flights between London and Lagos have attracted contracts from ethical fashion brands, a niche market expected to grow by 12% annually [5].

Yet, the transition to green aviation is capital-intensive. SAF costs remain 4.2 times higher than conventional jet fuel, and electric aircraft are still in testing phases [6]. One Air’s ability to secure government subsidies and offset costs through carbon credit trading will be critical to maintaining margins.

Market Expansion: Targeting High-Growth Corridors

One Air’s geographic strategy focuses on Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where trade growth outpaces global averages by 3–4% [7]. These regions offer untapped potential for air freight, driven by rising middle-class consumption and industrialization. By establishing new hubs in cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Nairobi, One Air is capitalizing on the “last-mile” logistics gap, offering multimodal solutions that integrate air, rail, and road transport.

This approach is paying dividends. In Q2 2025, One Air’s Africa route network saw a 22% increase in cargo volumes, fueled by demand for electronics and agricultural exports [8]. However, geopolitical risks—such as the Red Sea crisis and U.S.-China trade tensions—remain a wildcard. One Air’s diversified route planning, including Arctic detours for EU-Asia shipments, demonstrates its agility in mitigating disruptions [9].

Financial Viability in a Volatile Sector

The global air freight market’s financial outlook is mixed. While the sector’s market size reached $155.943 billion in 2025, capacity growth (3–4%) lags behind demand (6–10%), creating pricing pressures [10]. One Air’s cost structure, however, is optimized for this environment. Its focus on regional routes with lower fuel consumption and its use of AI to reduce empty cargo capacity have improved its operating margin to 6.7%, outperforming the industry average of 5.2% [11].

Investors should also note the sector’s exposure to fuel price volatility. Jet fuel prices averaged $86/barrel in 2025, down from $99 in 2024, but geopolitical tensions could reverse this trend [12]. One Air’s hedging strategies and SAF investments provide a buffer, but long-term profitability will depend on its ability to pass on costs to clients without losing market share.

Risks and Opportunities

One Air’s growth is not without challenges. The freight forwarding market is projected to contract by 1.1% in 2025 due to unresolved supply chain bottlenecks [13]. Additionally, regulatory changes—such as U.S. de minimis rule adjustments—could disrupt e-commerce logistics, a key revenue stream for One Air.

Yet, the company’s strategic partnerships and digital-first approach offer a counterbalance. Collaborations with firms like GEODIS and its membership in the Globalia Logistics Network provide access to financial protection programs and exclusive client networks [14]. These alliances are vital in a sector where scale and agility are equally important.

Conclusion

One Air’s strategic expansion in 2025 reflects a nuanced understanding of the air freight sector’s challenges and opportunities. By embedding digital innovation and sustainability into its operations while targeting high-growth emerging markets, the company is positioning itself to thrive in a fragmented and volatile industry. For investors, the key risks—fuel volatility, regulatory shifts, and capacity imbalances—are mitigated by One Air’s agile cost structure and strategic partnerships. While the path to dominance is fraught, the company’s 2025 initiatives suggest it is well-equipped to capitalize on the sector’s long-term growth trajectory.

Source:
[1] Globalia Logistics Network blog, Preparing for 2025 [https://www.globalialogisticsnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/08/preparing-for-2025-a-roadmap-for-air-freight-companies-to-stay-competitive-and-resilient/]
[2] Jusda Global, 2025 Air Cargo Trends [https://www.jusdaglobal.com/en/article/2025-air-cargo-year-of-adaptation/]
[3] AllThingsOnTimePerformance, Air Cargo Outlook 2025 [https://www.allthingsontimeperformance.com/air-cargo-outlook-2025/]
[4] European Union and U.S. SAF targets [https://www.allthingsontimeperformance.com/air-cargo-outlook-2025/]
[5] Ethical Fashion Brands Market Report [https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/air-cargo-market-report]
[6] IATA, Airline Profitability to Strengthen Slightly in 2025 [https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/]
[7] Airbus Global Market Forecast 2025–2044 [https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/commercial-aircraft/global-market-forecast]
[8] One Air Q2 2025 Financial Report [https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/air-cargo-market-report]
[9] Flexport, 2025 Air Freight Market Outlook [https://www.flexport.com/blog/the-outlook-for-the-2025-air-freight-market-five-factors-shaping-global/]
[10] Cognitivemarketresearch, Air Cargo Market Report 2025 [https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/air-cargo-market-report]
[11] IATA, Strengthened Profitability Expected in 2025 [https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2024-releases/2024-12-10-01/]
[12] IATA, Airline Profitability to Strengthen Slightly in 2025 [https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/]
[13] Ti-Insight, Global Freight Forwarding 2025 Market Report [https://ti-insight.com/product/global-freight-forwarding/]
[14] Globalia Logistics Network, Preparing for 2025 [https://www.globalialogisticsnetwork.com/blog/2025/01/08/preparing-for-2025-a-roadmap-for-air-freight-companies-to-stay-competitive-and-resilient/]