Elon Musk's Companies: Can They Thrive Without Him?

The departure of Elon Musk from his U.S. government role as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in May 2025 marks a pivotal moment for his sprawling business empire. Tesla's Norwegian sales surge, Neuralink's record funding round, and xAI's aggressive fundraising all suggest these ventures possess standalone potential. Yet, a closer look reveals a precarious truth: while short-term gains are achievable, long-term success hinges on Musk's direct involvement. For investors, this creates a high-risk, high-reward calculus.

Tesla: Regional Triumphs Mask Broader Vulnerabilities

Tesla's May 2025 sales in Norway soared by 213% year-on-year, driven by the Model Y's practical features—such as its tow hitch and large cargo space—which align perfectly with Norwegian preferences. The country's EV incentives, including VAT exemptions and access to bus lanes, further fueled demand.

Yet, this regional success contrasts sharply with Tesla's European-wide sales collapse of 49% in April 2025. Analysts attribute this to Musk's controversial political activities, including his support for far-right groups, which alienated buyers in Germany, France, and Sweden.

The stock's volatility mirrors this duality: while Norway's success boosted shares temporarily, broader European declines and rising competition from BYD and NIO have eroded investor confidence. Without Musk's relentless focus on product innovation and brand management, Tesla risks losing market share to rivals leveraging faster regulatory approvals and lower-cost production.

Neuralink: Funded for Growth, Still Tethered to Musk

Neuralink's $650 million Series E funding round in late 2024 marked a milestone, with investors like ARK Invest and Sequoia backing its brain-computer interface (BCI) trials. The company's ability to conduct human trials restoring vision and speech for paralyzed patients demonstrates progress toward commercialization. However, Neuralink's roadmap remains deeply intertwined with Musk's vision. As CEO Jared Birchall acknowledges, “Elon's strategic bets on BCI's societal impact are what attract capital.”

Yet, risks linger. Technical challenges, such as wiring issues in May 2024, and regulatory scrutiny over animal testing have slowed progress. While Neuralink's FDA-approved trials for “Blindsight” are promising, its long-term viability depends on Musk's ability to navigate ethical debates and secure public trust—a task no CEO can manage alone.

xAI: Betting on Musk's Return to the Forefront

xAI's $5.3 billion fundraising blitz in June 2025—$5 billion in bonds and $300 million in equity—reflects investor confidence in Musk's vision for AI. The capital will expand the Memphis-based Colossus data center, housing 200,000 GPUs to train models like Tesla's FSD software. Musk's pivot back to business post-DOGE has already borne fruit: Tesla's stock rose 20% post-earnings as investors bet on Musk's renewed focus.

However, xAI's success hinges on Musk's uninterrupted attention. The integration of X (Twitter) into xAI Holdings, creating a data-rich AI engine, is a Musk-driven strategy. Without his daily involvement, synergies between social media data and AI training could stall, leaving xAI vulnerable to rivals like Meta and OpenAI.

The Bottom Line: Risk and Reward in the Musk Era

Investors face a paradox. Tesla's Norway success and Neuralink's funding suggest these companies can thrive in niche markets. xAI's scale-up is a clear win for Musk's vision. Yet, systemic risks loom: Tesla's European decline underscores brand fragility without Musk's hands-on leadership; Neuralink's technical hurdles require his vision; and xAI's ambitions demand his relentless focus.

The data shows Musk's companies can attract capital, but their trajectories are uniquely tied to his personal influence. For those willing to bet on Musk's ability to balance political ambitions with corporate demands, the upside is vast—from Tesla's AI-driven Robotaxi service to Neuralink's medical breakthroughs. But for investors seeking stable, Musk-independent growth, the risks of regulatory backlash, technical delays, and brand erosion are too great.

Investor Takeaway: Musk's companies are now at an inflection point. Short-term gains are achievable, but long-term dominance requires his sustained focus. Investors must weigh the potential rewards against the risk of Musk's distraction—a gamble only the bold should take.