Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold, Silver, and Platinum: Timing the Next Rally in Precious Metals

The precious metals market-gold, silver, and platinum-has long been a focal point for investors seeking refuge from macroeconomic volatility. As of November 26, 2025, these metals are navigating a coordinated corrective phase, marked by B-wave bounces within broader Elliott Wave structures. By integrating Fibonacci retracement levels with wave pattern analysis, traders can identify high-probability entry points to capitalize on potential reversals or continuation trends.

Gold: A B-Wave Bounce at Critical Fibonacci Levels

Gold's price action in 2025 reflects a textbook B-wave correction, with Fibonacci retracements playing a pivotal role in defining key support and resistance zones. After a sharp decline from October 2025 peaks, gold has consolidated near the $4,200 level, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement acting as a critical support zone. This level has historically served as a reversal point, aligning with Elliott Wave theory's expectation that wave 3 will extend to 161.8% of wave 1's magnitude.

Technical indicators suggest the B-wave may be nearing exhaustion. For instance, declining volume during recent rallies and overbought conditions in the Gold Cycle Indicator (currently at 450) signal weakening momentum. Traders should monitor the $4,248.00 level as a breakout threshold: a break above this could target $4,600–$4,800, while a breakdown below $4,146 would validate a bearish continuation.

Silver: Symmetrical Correction and Fibonacci Confluence

Silver's trajectory mirrors gold's, with a 6.3% intraday drop in October 2025 followed by a consolidation phase near $52–$54. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $54.50 has acted as a psychological barrier, with recent tests failing to close above this threshold. This aligns with Elliott Wave theory's A-B-C corrective structure, where the B-wave's deceptive strength often precedes a decisive C-wave decline.

Mining equities and the gold-to-silver ratio further reinforce this narrative. A surge in silver's mining indices and a narrowing gold-to-silver ratio suggest synchronized institutional positioning across the precious metals complex. Traders should watch for a breakdown below $52.00, which would confirm the resumption of the bearish trend.

Platinum: Impulsive Uptrend and Fibonacci Extensions

Platinum's Elliott Wave structure is more advanced, with the metal currently in wave ((III)) of a larger five-wave impulse. After a bearish correction (wave ((II)) bottoming at 562), platinum resumed its rally, reaching $1,534 as of November 26, 2025. Fibonacci extensions now project potential targets for wave ((III)) at 161.8% of wave ((I)), which could push platinum toward $2,300+ if the bullish momentum holds.

Key support levels, such as the 50-day EMA at $1,534, remain critical. A break below this would invalidate the current impulsive structure and trigger a reevaluation of the wave count. However, as long as platinum remains above 883.7, the broader Elliott Wave framework favors further upside.

Synthesis: Coordinated B-Wave Bounce and Institutional Positioning

The synchronized behavior of gold, silver, and platinum underscores a broader institutional narrative. High correlation coefficients (0.85+ for gold-silver and 0.72+ for gold-platinum) suggest coordinated positioning rather than isolated market dynamics. This alignment is further reinforced by mining equities acting as leading indicators, with their recent underperformance hinting at a potential shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci retracement levels across all three metals-particularly the 61.8% and 38.2% levels-have acted as confluence zones for Elliott Wave corrections. For example, gold's 61.8% retracement at $4,200 and silver's 61.8% level at $54.50 are both showing signs of exhaustion, with price action forming outside reversal patterns.

High-Probability Entry Points and Risk Management

To exploit these dynamics, traders should focus on the following strategies:
1. Gold: Long positions near $4,200 with a stop-loss below $4,146 and a target at $4,600. Short positions could be initiated below $4,146, targeting $3,742–$3,335.
2. Silver: Short positions below $52.00, with a stop-loss above $54.50 and a target at $48.00.
3. Platinum: Long positions near $1,534, with a stop-loss below 883.7 and a target at $2,300 (161.8% extension of wave ((I))).

Risk management is paramount. Position sizing should reflect the volatility of each metal, with tighter stops near key Fibonacci levels. Additionally, traders should use RSI and volume analysis to confirm breakouts or breakdowns, avoiding false signals during consolidation phases.

Conclusion

The Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis of gold, silver, and platinum in 2025 reveals a coordinated corrective phase, with B-wave bounces nearing exhaustion. By leveraging Fibonacci retracement levels and wave pattern validation, investors can identify high-probability entry points to navigate the next leg of the precious metals cycle. As institutional positioning and technical indicators align, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the C-wave bearish phase resumes or a new bullish impulsive structure emerges.