Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, Target Set at $55,759

Bitcoin ETFs have experienced $3.8 billion in outflows over five consecutive weeks, reflecting investor caution in the wake of the October 2025 market crash. The redemptions suggest ongoing risk-off sentiment, with capital shifting to alternative assets like Solana and XRP-based funds. Large holders are driving Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, indicating strong selling pressure.

The Supreme Court recently invalidated Trump's IEEPA-based tariff program, potentially injecting $179 billion in liquidity into the market. This refund mechanism could influence Bitcoin's price trajectory, depending on whether the funds are drawn from existing Treasury reserves or new bill issuance.

A final bear market leg is expected for Bitcoin, according to Elliott Wave Strategy, which identifies Wave 5 in motion. The price could drop to $60,385 at the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement level and further decline to $55,759 at the 1.618 Fibonacci level. This projection suggests a potential 55% drop from Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000.

Why Did This Bearish Move Happen?

Bitcoin ETFs have faced persistent outflows since early 2026, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the redemptions with $2.13 billion in withdrawals. This trend reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff announcements. Institutional investors appear to be recalibrating their exposure to crypto assets amid these headwinds.

The bearish impulse is further supported by whale-driven inflows to exchanges, with the exchange whale ratio reaching 0.64, the highest since October 2015. This suggests concentrated selling by large holders, amplifying downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

How Did Markets React to the Tariff Ruling?

The Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's IEEPA-based tariff program led to immediate market reactions, including a rise in equities and a weaker dollar. If the $179 billion in refunds are paid from existing Treasury reserves, liquidity could increase, potentially supporting Bitcoin prices. However, new Treasury bill issuance to fund the refunds could tighten funding conditions and weigh on Bitcoin.

The liquidity injection remains contingent on litigation timelines and the method of execution. The impact on Bitcoin will depend on whether the market interprets the refunds as a net liquidity boost or a tightening of funding conditions.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

LiteFinance's short-term analysis suggests a potential bullish impulse forming for Bitcoin, with a target price of $72,090.93. This contrasts with the bearish Elliott Wave projections, highlighting the divergence in market sentiment. The firm recommends buying Bitcoin at $65,619.79 with a take profit at $72,090.93.

Meanwhile, Ethereum and XRP are also under analysis. Ethereum is seen forming an upward zigzag pattern, with a buy recommendation at $1,910.78 and a take profit at $2,153.91. XRP, however, is expected to continue its downward impulse, with a sell recommendation at $1.367 and a target of $1.142.

Stablecoin inflows have declined significantly, with Tether's net inflows dropping from $616 million in November 2025 to around $27 million. This trend underscores weak marginal buying pressure and prolonged bearish conditions.

Bitcoin's current price of $68,600 has fallen over 20% year-to-date, with the ongoing outflows reflecting broader market consolidation and reduced investor confidence. The market is closely watching for signs of a recovery, but analysts caution that no clear bottom has yet been established.