Why Eli Lilly, Viking Therapeutics, and Novo Nordisk Stocks Surged on Friday: A Breakthrough in the GLP-1 Race
38min read The stocks of eli lilly (LLY), Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), and Novo Nordisk (NVO) surged on April 25–26, 2025, driven by a mix of clinical breakthroughs, strategic moves, and broader market optimism. While each company’s catalysts differed, they all reflected the escalating stakes in the GLP-1 receptor agonist market—a space now valued at over $40 billion annually. Here’s a breakdown of what investors should know.
Eli Lilly: The First-Mover Advantage
Eli Lilly’s 14.2% stock surge on April 25 stemmed from Phase 3 trial success for orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 drug. Unlike existing injectable competitors like Ozempic or Wegovy, orforglipron is a pill that requires no food or water restrictions. Clinical data showed patients lost 7.9% of their body weight over 40 weeks—a milestone that suggests sustained efficacy—and reduced A1C levels by 1.3–1.6%, signaling promise for diabetes management.
The drug’s convenience and safety profile (no liver toxicity, unlike Pfizer’s failed danuglipron) positioned Lilly to dominate the oral GLP-1 segment. Analysts at JPMorgan highlighted that Lilly’s first-to-market status could insulate it from competition, even as rivals like Roche and Pfizer scramble to catch up.
Novo Nordisk: A Strategic Win, But at a Cost
Novo Nordisk’s stock initially rose 5.8% after announcing a CVS partnership to distribute Wegovy at lower prices. The deal expanded access to the weight-loss drug, potentially boosting market share. However, the stock fell 7.1% the next day as investors digested the risks of a price war. Analysts warned that aggressive pricing by Novo could force rivals to cut prices, eroding margins.
Novo’s valuation (P/E of 19x) remains more conservative than Lilly’s inflated P/E of 65x, but its stock volatility underscores the industry’s growing pains.
Viking Therapeutics: A High-Risk, High-Reward Gamble
Viking’s stock rose 3.5% on April 25 following updates on its VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist in Phase 3 trials. Patients using the drug achieved 14.7% weight loss in 13 weeks—a result that could challenge Novo and Lilly’s dominance. However, Viking’s unprofitable status and $852 million cash reserve raise concerns about funding future trials.
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald called Viking a “hero-or-zero” play: if VK2735 secures FDA approval by late 2028, its market cap could soar. But with a tiny market cap (~$3 billion) and fierce competition, failure risks are steep.
The Bigger Picture: Price Wars and Pipeline Pressures
The GLP-1 market’s growth is outpacing expectations, but so are its challenges. The CVS-Novo deal signals a shift toward affordability, pressuring competitors to cut prices. Meanwhile, Roche and Pfizer are racing to launch their own GLP-1 drugs, further intensifying supply and pricing battles.
Conclusion: Near-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Risks
Investors are caught between two narratives: the clinical triumphs of Eli Lilly and Viking, versus the price war anxieties haunting Novo. Here’s the data-driven take:
- Eli Lilly remains the safest bet for now. Its Phase 3 success and first-mover advantage in oral GLP-1 drugs justify its premium valuation, despite risks.
- Novo Nordisk is a balanced play, with established market share but exposed to margin pressures. Its P/E of 19x suggests it’s trading at a discount to its potential.
- Viking Therapeutics is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Its VK2735 could unlock a $20 billion market, but execution risks—funding, competition, and regulatory hurdles—loom large.
The GLP-1 space is now a winner-takes-most arena. Investors must weigh whether to bet on proven leaders like Lilly or take a chance on upstarts like Viking. For now, the market’s verdict is clear: innovation wins, but execution defines survival.
In the coming months, regulatory approvals, pricing strategies, and clinical trial updates will determine which companies emerge as champions—or casualties—in this high-stakes race.
