Eli Lilly's LLY Surges 4.38% on Groundbreaking Obesity Drug Data – What's Next for the Pharma Giant?

Summary
• Eli Lilly's stock (LLY) surges 4.38% intraday to $725.79, driven by positive Phase 3 trial results for oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron.
• The leveraged ETF Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LLY ETF (LLYX) jumps 8.43%, while Direxion Daily LLY Bull 2X Shares (ELIL) gains 8.36%.
• Technical indicators show a short-term bullish trend with RSI at 35.82 and MACD crossing above the signal line.

Eli Lilly’s stock is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally as the company announces successful Phase 3 trial data for its oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron. The stock has surged 4.38% to $725.79, trading near its 52-week high of $969.65. With the options market showing heightened activity and leveraged ETFs amplifying the move, investors are scrambling to position for the next phase of this blockbuster story.

Orforglipron Trial Success Ignites Euphoria
Eli Lilly’s stock surged on the release of topline data from the Phase 3 ATTAIN-2 trial for orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist. The drug demonstrated a 10.5% average weight loss (22.9 lbs) in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes, with A1C reductions of 1.8%. These results, consistent with injectable GLP-1s but with the convenience of an oral pill, have positioned orforglipron as a potential game-changer in the obesity and diabetes treatment landscape. The absence of dietary restrictions and the drug’s scalability further amplify its commercial appeal, triggering immediate market enthusiasm.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on LLY’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 789.04 (below current price); RSI: 35.82 (oversold); MACD: -16.96 (bullish crossover).
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at 800.61, Middle at 705.88, Lower at 611.15 (price near upper band).
• Kline pattern: Short-term bullish trend, long-term bearish.

LLY’s technicals suggest a short-term breakout potential amid oversold conditions. Key support/resistance levels at 760.32–764.06 (30D) and 771.60–777.69 (200D) could dictate near-term direction. The leveraged ETF Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LLY ETF (LLYX) and Direxion Daily LLY Bull 2X Shares (ELIL) offer amplified exposure to this rally.

Top Options Picks:
• LLY20250905C725: Call option with strike price $725, expiring 2025-09-05. Key stats: IV 27.28%, leverage ratio 49.56%, delta 0.530981, theta -1.772981, gamma 0.011563, turnover $1.408M. This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a 5% upside (target price $761.57) with a projected payoff of $36.57 per contract.
• LLY20250905C730: Call option with strike price $730, expiring 2025-09-05. Key stats: IV 27.41%, leverage ratio 59.03%, delta 0.473359, theta -1.654379, gamma 0.011520, turnover $675K. This option balances moderate delta with high leverage, suitable for a 5% upside (target price $761.57) with a projected payoff of $31.57 per contract.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize LLY20250905C725 for its liquidity and leverage, while LLY20250905C730 offers a slightly safer entry. Watch for a break above $730 to confirm the bullish thesis.

Backtest Eli Lilly Stock Performance
The backtest of LLY's performance after an intraday surge of 4% shows favorable short-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 57.01%, the 10-Day win rate at 58.38%, and the 30-Day win rate at 61.43%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 8.30% over 30 days, indicating that LLY tends to continue performing well in the immediate aftermath of a significant intraday move.

Position for LLY’s Next Move: Breakout or Correction?
Eli Lilly’s stock is poised for further gains if the market digests the orforglipron data as a transformative event. Key levels to watch include the 200-day average at $789.04 and the upper Bollinger Band at $800.61. A sustained close above $730 would validate the breakout, while a pullback to $713.09 (intraday low) could test near-term resolve. Investors should also monitor the sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which fell -0.237% today, for broader pharma sector cues. For now, the leveraged ETFs and selected call options offer the most dynamic exposure to LLY’s momentum. Aggressive bulls: Buy LLY20250905C725 into a break above $730.