Eli Lilly Slashes Sales Outlook Amid Sluggish Incretin Drug Growth

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) has cut its sales outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024, citing sluggish growth in the market for incretin drugs, which are used to treat diabetes and obesity. The Indianapolis-based pharmaceutical company now expects fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $13.5 billion, around $400 million below the low end of its previously estimated range. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected $13.93 billion in revenue for the quarter.

The company attributed the lower-than-expected sales guidance to slower-than-anticipated growth in the U.S. incretin market and lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end. While the U.S. incretin market grew by 45% compared to the same quarter last year, Eli Lilly had expected even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter. Additionally, the company had expected a buildback of inventory at the end of the year, but this did not happen, leading to lower sales in the quarter.

Despite the lower sales guidance, Eli Lilly remains optimistic about its prospects for 2025. The company anticipates revenue between $58 billion and $61 billion for the year, representing growth of 32% at the midpoint compared to expected 2024 revenue. Eli Lilly expects robust sales growth to continue in 2025, driven by the success of its weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, as well as the launch of new medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, and Kisunla.



The company also expects to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024, as it brings additional manufacturing capacity online. This increased production capacity will help Eli Lilly meet the growing demand for its weight-loss drugs and maintain its market leadership in the incretin drug market.



In conclusion, Eli Lilly has cut its sales outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 due to sluggish growth in the incretin drug market and lower-than-expected channel inventory. However, the company remains optimistic about its prospects for 2025, driven by the success of its weight-loss drugs and the launch of new medicines. Eli Lilly's manufacturing capacity expansion will also help the company meet the growing demand for its incretin drugs and maintain its market leadership in the market.