Eli Lilly Shares Dip Despite 4.34B Trade Volume Surge to 17th Rank as Mounjaro Trial Results Spark Skepticism

On July 31, 2025, Eli Lilly (LLY) traded with a volume of 4.34 billion, up 30.77% from the prior day, ranking 17th in market activity. The company announced positive results from the SURPASS-CVOT trial, where its dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist Mounjaro (tirzepatide) demonstrated non-inferior cardiovascular outcomes compared to Trulicity (dulaglutide), with an 8% lower risk of MACE-3 events (hazard ratio 0.92). The drug also showed a 16% reduction in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.84) and improved kidney function, reinforcing its safety profile. These findings position Mounjaro as a potential first-line treatment for type 2 diabetes patients with cardiovascular disease.

Despite the robust data, LLY shares fell 2.63%, suggesting market skepticism about the drug’s competitive edge. While Mounjaro’s additional benefits, such as enhanced weight loss and renal protection, could drive adoption, the non-inferiority outcome in the primary endpoint may not have exceeded expectations. The trial’s large scale (13,300 participants) and long duration (four years) add credibility, but investors may be pricing in regulatory delays or pricing pressures. Lilly plans to submit data to regulators by year-end, with results to be presented at the EASD 2025 meeting.

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