Eli Lilly's Mixed Q4: Profit Beats Expectations, But Diabetes Drug Sales Disappoint

Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly released mixed fourth-quarter earnings, surpassing Wall Street's profit expectations but falling short on sales of its blockbuster drug Tirzepatide.

The earnings report revealed that Eli Lilly's Q4 2024 revenue reached $13.53 billion, marking a 45% yearly increase, but is slightly lower than the market expectation of $13.57 billion. Net income stood at $4.41 billion, or $4.88 per share. Excluding one-time items such as intangible asset adjustments, adjusted earnings per share were $5.32, exceeding analysts' average estimate of $4.95 per share.

Tirzepatide, Eli Lilly's flagship product, is marketed under two brands: Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. Both drugs share the same active ingredient but differ in their approved uses by regulatory authorities.

In Q4, Mounjaro generated $3.53 billion in revenue, up 60% from the year-earlier period. Meanwhile, Zepbound posted sales of $1.91 billion, slightly missing the consensus estimate of $1.98 billion.

This marks the second consecutive quarter where sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro have fallen short of expectations. Eli Lilly has previously cited reduced inventory levels at wholesalers as a contributing factor.

Eli Lilly maintained its 2025 revenue forecast, projecting sales between $58 billion and $61 billion, aligning with analysts' average estimate of $59.41 billion.

Notably, the company announced plans to release late-stage clinical trial data for its next-generation weight-loss drug, Retatrutide, later this year—several months ahead of schedule. Retatrutide operates differently from current market offerings by mimicking three appetite-regulating hormones: GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon.

Eli Lilly's primary competitor in the weight-loss market, Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, also reported earnings on Wednesday. Novo Nordisk's Q4 operating profit rose 37% to 36.7 billion Danish Krone ($5.1 billion), surpassing analysts' average estimate of 33.6 billion Krone. However, the company projected slower sales growth for 2025 compared to 2024.

Novo Nordisk attributed the slowdown to weakening demand for its weight-loss drug Wegovy and diabetes medication Ozempic, forecasting 2025 sales growth in the range of 16% to 24%, down from previous estimates.

The mixed results from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk highlight the challenges and opportunities in the rapidly evolving weight-loss and diabetes drug markets. While both companies continue to dominate, investor focus remains on their ability to innovate and meet soaring demand amid supply constraints and competitive pressures.