Eli Lilly's Q4 Results Fall Short of Expectations; More Details Awaited

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has announced preliminary results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with revenue coming in approximately $13.5 billion, about $400 million below the low end of the previously issued financial guidance. The company also lowered its full-year 2024 revenue guidance to $45.0 billion, $400 million below the midpoint of the first-time 2024 financial guidance issued earlier in the year. These developments have disappointed investors, who were expecting stronger performance from the pharmaceutical giant.

The lower-than-expected revenue guidance for Q4 2024 and the slight reduction in the company's full-year 2024 revenue guidance can be attributed to slower-than-anticipated growth in the U.S. incretin market and lower-than-anticipated channel inventory at year-end. Eli Lilly's weight-loss drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have been significant contributors to the company's revenue growth, but the high demand for these drugs has presented challenges in meeting supply needs.

Eli Lilly has been working to address these supply challenges by increasing its manufacturing capacity. The company expects to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024. This increased production capacity should help Eli Lilly meet the growing demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound and maintain its revenue growth momentum.

Despite the recent setbacks, Eli Lilly remains optimistic about its future prospects. The company anticipates revenue growth contributions in 2025 from new medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, and Kisunla, as well as additional manufacturing capacity and potential launches of new medicines such as imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer. These factors are expected to drive Eli Lilly's revenue growth in 2025, with the company anticipating sales in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, representing a growth of 32% at the midpoint compared to expected 2024 revenue.




In conclusion, Eli Lilly's preliminary Q4 results have fallen short of investor expectations, with revenue guidance for the quarter and full-year 2024 revenue guidance both coming in below previous estimates. The company's weight-loss drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, have faced supply challenges in meeting high demand, but Eli Lilly is working to address these issues by increasing manufacturing capacity. Despite these recent setbacks, Eli Lilly remains optimistic about its future prospects, with new medicines and additional manufacturing capacity expected to drive revenue growth in 2025. Investors will be watching closely as Eli Lilly releases more details on its Q4 results on February 6.