Eli Lilly's Orforglipron and the Obesity Market: Strategic De-Risking and Viking Therapeutics' Competitive Crossroads

The obesity drug market is on the cusp of a transformative phase, with Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, orforglipron, poised to redefine competitive dynamics. As research shows, the sector races toward a projected $100 billion valuation by 2030, strategic de-risking and differentiation have become critical for players like Viking Therapeutics, whose dual GIPR/GLP-1 agonist, VK2735, faces an uphill battle against Lilly's robust pipeline. This analysis examines how Lilly's advancements in oral obesity therapeutics could reshape the market and what this means for Viking's future.

Lilly's Orforglipron: A Strategic Pivot to Oral Therapies

Eli Lilly's orforglipron has emerged as a cornerstone of its obesity strategy, with Phase 3 results demonstrating a 10.5% average weight loss at the highest dose (36 mg) compared to 2.2% in the placebo group. These outcomes, coupled with a safety profile consistent with injectable GLP-1 therapies, position orforglipron as a compelling alternative to current standards of care. The drug's once-daily oral administration addresses a key unmet need in the market, where patient adherence to injectables remains a barrier.

Lilly's broader pipeline further de-risks its exposure to the obesity market. Retatrutide, a GGG (GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon) tri-agonist, has shown 28.7% weight loss in Phase III trials, outperforming even its own oral GLP-1 candidate. By diversifying its portfolio across oral and injectable formats, Lilly is not only hedging against regulatory or manufacturing risks but also catering to distinct patient segments-those prioritizing convenience (orforglipron) and those requiring maximal efficacy (retatrutide). This dual-pronged approach underscores Lilly's intent to dominate the obesity space through both accessibility and performance.

Viking Therapeutics: Navigating a Crowded Field

Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 entered the obesity market with promise but has faced significant headwinds. While its Phase 2 subcutaneous formulation achieved 14.7% weight loss, the oral version's 12.2% efficacy pales in comparison to Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy and Lilly's orforglipron. According to clinical data, 38% of patients in the highest-dose group discontinued treatment due to adverse events, triggering a sharp decline in Viking's stock price.

However, Viking's recent Q3 2025 updates offer a glimmer of hope. The VANQUISH Phase 3 trials for the subcutaneous formulation are on track, with enrollment expected to conclude by early 2026. The company also highlighted VK2735's ability to improve cardiometabolic parameters, including reducing prediabetes prevalence, which could carve out a niche for the drug in patients with comorbidities. Viking's CEO, Brian Lian, has emphasized the drug's "differentiated safety profile" as a potential best-in-class differentiator, though this remains to be validated in larger trials.

Market Implications: De-Risking Through Diversification

The obesity market's rapid evolution demands that companies balance innovation with risk mitigation. Lilly's dual focus on oral and injectable therapies exemplifies this strategy. By securing regulatory approval for orforglipron by year-end 2025, the company is accelerating its entry into the oral GLP-1 segment, where Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy has already filed for an NDA. This move not only diversifies Lilly's revenue streams but also insulates it from potential supply chain disruptions or pricing pressures in the injectable space.

For Viking, the path forward hinges on leveraging its subcutaneous formulation's superior efficacy and cardiometabolic benefits to target a narrower patient population. While the oral version may struggle to compete with Lilly's and Novo's offerings, the subcutaneous route could appeal to patients seeking a middle ground between injectables and pills. Additionally, Viking's $715 million cash reserves provide a buffer to navigate Phase 3 trials, though its Q3 net loss of $90.8 million underscores the financial risks of a delayed market entry.

Conclusion: A Market of Winners and Losers

As the obesity drug landscape matures, companies that fail to innovate or differentiate will find themselves sidelined. Eli Lilly's strategic de-risking through a diversified pipeline positions it as a market leader, while Viking's reliance on a single dual-agonist platform leaves it vulnerable to competitive pressures. Investors should closely monitor Viking's Phase 3 results for VK2735, particularly its long-term safety and tolerability, but remain cautious given the drug's current efficacy gap. Conversely, Lilly's imminent regulatory submissions and robust trial data suggest it is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the $100 billion market, provided it can maintain its innovation edge.