Eli Lilly's Mounjaro shows promise in cardiovascular treatment, but share price falls 4.62% despite positive trial results.

Eli Lilly announced positive findings from its SURPASS-CVOT trial, showcasing Mounjaro's potential benefits over Trulicity in reducing cardiovascular events. Despite the positive announcements, the company's share price fell by 4.62% over the past month. Analysts forecast a revenue trajectory supported by innovations in diabetes and Alzheimer's treatments, suggesting these advances could bolster long-term earnings.

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) recently announced topline results from the SURPASS-CVOT trial, a Phase 3 cardiovascular outcomes trial comparing Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Trulicity (dulaglutide) in adults with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The trial demonstrated that Mounjaro achieved its primary objective of non-inferiority in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE-3) compared to Trulicity, with an 8% lower rate of MACE-3 events. Additionally, Mounjaro showed greater reductions in A1C levels, weight, and all-cause mortality compared to Trulicity [1].

The SURPASS-CVOT trial, which enrolled over 13,000 participants across 30 countries and lasted over four and a half years, is the largest and longest study of tirzepatide to date. The trial found that Mounjaro reduced the risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack, or stroke by 8% (hazard ratio: 0.92; 95.3% CI: 0.83 to 1.01) compared to Trulicity, meeting the prespecified criteria for non-inferiority. Mounjaro also led to a 16% lower rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 0.84; 95.0% CI: 0.75 to 0.94) [1].

Despite these positive findings, Eli Lilly's share price fell by 4.62% over the past month. Analysts attribute this decline to market expectations and concerns about the company's ability to maintain growth momentum. However, analysts also forecast a revenue trajectory supported by innovations in diabetes and Alzheimer's treatments, suggesting these advances could bolster long-term earnings [2].

The SURPASS-CVOT trial results strengthen the case for Mounjaro as a potential front-line treatment for people with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The trial also demonstrated Mounjaro's greater kidney protection and reduced overall risk of death compared to Trulicity [1]. Lilly plans to submit these data to global regulatory authorities by the end of 2025 [1].

References:
[1] https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-mounjaro-tirzepatide-gipglp-1-dual-agonist-demonstrated
[2] https://www.ft.com/content/0b949a87-173b-4a95-837e-00100021a156