Eli Lilly drops in volume spike, last down 3.2%

Eli Lilly drops in volume spike, last down 3.2%

Eli Lilly (LLY) stock experienced a significant decline on Thursday morning after the release of topline results from the SURPASS-CVOT trial [3]. The trial compared Mounjaro, a newer diabetes drug, with Trulicity, a previously top-selling medication. While Mounjaro met its primary objective of non-inferiority with an 8% lower rate of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE-3) compared to Trulicity, it failed to demonstrate superiority [3].

The stock fell as much as 4.5% before paring the drop to 2.25%. The results were a disappointment for investors who had hoped for clear evidence of Mounjaro's superiority over Trulicity. The trial showed a hazard ratio of 0.92, which did not meet the threshold for superiority [3].

Eli Lilly had been positioning Mounjaro as a stronger choice for patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk. The company had previously highlighted Mounjaro's potential to reduce the risk of heart attack and stroke compared to Trulicity [1]. However, the latest trial results indicate that Mounjaro's benefits are not as significant as initially anticipated.

The company's shares dipped 0.5% in early trading following the announcement. BMO analyst Evan Seigerman noted that although the trial results showcased Mounjaro’s strengths, a significant contingent of investors had been betting it would show clear superiority [1].

The trial was the largest and longest yet for tirzepatide, the chemical name for Mounjaro. The study involved more than 13,000 patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. Lilly plans to submit its findings to the FDA later this year for an anticipated 2026 expanded approval [1].

The results of the trial may prompt some healthcare professionals to reconsider their recommendations for patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk. However, insurance, patient preferences, and tolerability will guide final decisions [1].

In the U.S., the obesity version of Mounjaro is sold under the brand name Zepbound. The drug has captured more than half of the U.S. market share in diabetes care compared to Novo's Ozempic [1].

Eli Lilly's stock volatility is not isolated. The pharmaceutical sector has been experiencing significant turbulence due to various factors, including Novo Nordisk's profit warning and distribution challenges for Zepbound [2]. The weight-loss drug market is facing broader slowdowns, and Lilly's Zepbound is caught between competitive pressures and distribution bottlenecks [2].

Investors should monitor the 200-day moving average at $807.82 as a key inflection point and watch for a sector rebound before re-entering long positions. The sector's near-term outlook remains clouded by Novo's 21.33% plunge and regulatory/demand pressures [2].

References
[1] Reuters. (July 31, 2023). Mounjaro appears more heart-protective than Trulicity in trial. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mounjaro-appears-more-heart-protective-than-trulicity-trial-eli-lilly-diabetes-2025-07-31/
[2] AInvest. (July 25, 2025). Eli Lilly plunges 4.85 fueling sudden selloff. Retrieved from https://www.ainvest.com/news/eli-lilly-plunges-4-85-fueling-sudden-selloff-2507/
[3] Investing.com. (July 2, 2025). Lilly stock falls as Mounjaro fails to show superiority over Trulicity. Retrieved from https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/lilly-stock-falls-as-mounjaro-fails-to-show-superiority-over-trulicity-4162773