Eli Lilly's Diabetes Drug Mounjaro Shows Promise in Heart Health Benefits

Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro has been found to have heart health benefits in a head-to-head trial with Trulicity, the company's older diabetes treatment. Mounjaro met the study's main goal of showing it was not any worse than Trulicity at treating Type 2 diabetes patients with cardiovascular disease. However, the stock fell nearly 2% as the findings did not meet some analysts' benchmarks for being considered better than Trulicity. Despite this, Eli Lilly plans to submit the heart health data to global regulators by the end of the year, which could lead to approvals and insurance coverage of Mounjaro for treating cardiovascular disease in 2026. The stock has a consensus Strong Buy rating among 19 Wall Street analysts with an average price target of $1,028.80.

Shares of Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) dipped nearly 2% on Thursday following the release of topline findings from the SURPASS-CVOT study, which compared Mounjaro and Trulicity in adults with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease. Despite meeting the primary goal of non-inferiority, Mounjaro did not demonstrate superiority over Trulicity in reducing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE-3), leading to a drop in stock price.

The SURPASS-CVOT study, which included over 13,000 patients across 30 countries, found that Mounjaro met its primary endpoint of non-inferiority, showing an 8% reduction in MACE-3 compared to Trulicity. However, the drug did not meet the statistical threshold required to claim superiority, with a hazard ratio of 0.92 and a 95.3% confidence interval of 0.83 to 1.01. The study also reported favorable secondary outcomes for Mounjaro, including a 16% reduction in all-cause mortality, improvements in A1C, weight loss, and kidney function. These results, however, were not adjusted for multiplicity and thus cannot be considered definitive [1].

Analysts characterized the results as both encouraging and disappointing. Michael Shah of Bloomberg Intelligence noted that while Mounjaro met the primary endpoint, the failure to demonstrate superiority could limit its commercial appeal, as prescribers generally view Mounjaro as a more effective GLP-1 than Trulicity [1].

Eli Lilly plans to present full trial data at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes Annual Meeting in September and submit the findings to regulatory agencies globally by the end of the year. The company aims to secure label expansions to reduce the risk of cardiovascular issues and has a consensus Strong Buy rating among 19 Wall Street analysts with an average price target of $1,028.80 [2].

Despite the setback, the trial's findings suggest that Mounjaro could potentially become a front-line therapy for people managing both type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular conditions. The heart-helping benefits of GLP-1 drugs have been well established, with Eli Lilly's rival Novo Nordisk's Ozempic already approved to reduce cardiovascular risks in Type 2 diabetes patients [3].

References:
[1] https://ih.advfn.com/market-news/article/13895/lilly-shares-slide-as-mounjaro-fails-to-outperform-trulicity-in-heart-health-study
[2] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/pharma-major-eli-lilly-claims-its-weight-loss-drug-reduces-cardiovascular-risks-in-type-2-diabetes-patients/articleshow/123022798.cms
[3] https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/lillys-mounjaro-shows-its-cardio-benefits-head-head-trial-vs-trulicity