Is Eli Lilly a Buy Before 2026? A Deep Dive into Its Obesity Drug Dominance and Upcoming Launches

Eli Lilly (LLY) has emerged as a titan in the GLP-1 obesity drug market, and its dominance shows no signs of slowing. With blockbuster drugs like Zepbound and Mounjaro already driving record revenue, the company is now poised to cement its leadership through two groundbreaking pipeline assets: retatrutide, a triple-hormone agonist with unprecedented weight-loss efficacy, and orforglipron, a first-of-its-kind oral GLP-1 pill expected to launch in late 2026. For investors, the question isn't whether Lilly is a buy-it's how much upside remains in a stock that's already surged on its current success.

Retatrutide: A Game-Changer for Severe Obesity and Comorbidities

Lilly's retatrutide has shattered expectations in clinical trials, delivering results that outpace even its own blockbuster tirzepatide (Zepbound). In the Phase 3 TRIUMPH-4 trial, patients taking the 12 mg dose of retatrutide lost an average of over 68 weeks-a 10% edge over Zepbound's 18–20% weight loss in real-world data according to a recent analysis. This isn't just about aesthetics: the drug also and slashed cardiovascular risk markers like non-HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure.

The triple-agonist mechanism-activating GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors-explains the drug's potency. While side effects like nausea and dysesthesia remain a hurdle at the highest dose, these are largely tied to excessive weight loss in patients with lower baseline BMIs. For severe obesity patients, however, retatrutide's profile is unmatched. Analysts at Biospace note that its ability to address both weight and comorbidities positions it as a "next-generation therapy" in a market increasingly focused on holistic metabolic health.

Orforglipron: The Oral GLP-1 That Could Disrupt the Market

While injectables like Wegovy and Zepbound dominate today, the future of GLP-1s lies in oral convenience. Enter orforglipron, Lilly's once-daily pill that outperformed AstraZeneca's Farxiga in a head-to-head trial, achieving a at the highest dose. In the ACHIEVE-1 trial, orforglipron reduced HbA1c by 1.3–1.6% and delivered dose-dependent weight loss of up to 9.8%-all without the strict administration requirements of injectables according to clinical data.

The FDA is set to rule on orforglipron's obesity indication by , with a diabetes approval expected in 2026 as well according to market analysis. If approved, orforglipron could capture a significant share of the oral GLP-1 market, which is projected to grow rapidly as patients seek alternatives to weekly injections. Lilly's ability to scale manufacturing for this small-molecule drug also gives it a cost advantage over competitors like Novo Nordisk, which is still refining its oral semaglutide formulation.

Market Leadership and Financial Projections: Justifying the Premium Valuation

Lilly's dominance in the GLP-1 space is underpinned by unmatched revenue growth. In Q3 2025, Zepbound and Mounjaro generated , according to financial reports. The company's full-year 2024 revenue hit $45 billion, and it now projects , surpassing Merck to become the top pharmaceutical company by revenue according to industry forecasts.

The broader market is equally bullish. The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market is valued at and is expected to grow at a 3.64% CAGR, according to market research. With Zepbound already capturing . obesity prescriptions, Lilly's pipeline ensures it stays ahead of rivals like Novo Nordisk and Amgen according to market analysis.

Risks and Realities: Can Lilly Sustain This Momentum?

Critics argue that pricing pressures and pipeline competition could temper growth. Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy and Amgen's Ozempic alternatives are closing the gap, while Medicare's 2026 coverage expansion may drive demand but also scrutiny over costs. However, Lilly's dual focus on injectable and oral therapies, combined with its aggressive share buybacks ($15 billion program) and manufacturing investments, mitigates these risks.

Conclusion: A Buy for the Long-Term Investor

Eli Lilly's triple-hormone agonist retatrutide and oral GLP-1 orforglipron represent a blueprint for market dominance in the obesity and diabetes space. With a 2026 revenue forecast of $77 billion and a pipeline that addresses both weight loss and comorbidities, the company is not just riding a trend-it's defining it. For investors with a 3–5 year horizon, the question isn't whether Lilly is a buy, but how much of your portfolio you're willing to allocate to a stock that's reshaping the future of metabolic medicine.