Eli Lilly’s 2025 Healthcare Conference Play: Can the Pharma Giant Deliver on Its Promises?

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is set to take center stage at the Bank of America Securities 2025 Healthcare Conference on May 15, with CFO Lucas Montarce leading a fireside chat to outline the company’s strategic priorities and financial outlook. Investors are watching closely: Lilly’s stock has surged over the past year, fueled by blockbuster drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound, but challenges like regulatory hurdles, manufacturing bottlenecks, and rising R&D costs loom large. Let’s dissect the opportunities and risks ahead.

The Financial Crossroads: Growth vs. Headwinds

Lilly’s 2025 guidance paints an optimistic picture, with full-year revenue projected to hit $58.0–61.0 billion, driven by its GLP-1 franchise. Mounjaro, the diabetes and obesity star, generated $3.84 billion in Q1 2025 alone, up 113% year-over-year. Zepbound, its once-weekly diabetes treatment, saw a staggering 350% sales jump in the U.S. to $2.31 billion.

However, the company faces headwinds. A $1.72 per share charge from acquired IPR&D (in-process R&D) for Scorpion Therapeutics’ PI3Kα inhibitor program dragged reported EPS down to a revised $20.17–21.67 for 2025. Meanwhile, a higher effective tax rate (17% vs. 16% in 2024) and foreign exchange headwinds (-2% impact in Q1) add to the pressure.

Pipeline Progress: The Next Wave of Growth

Lilly’s pipeline isn’t just a backup plan—it’s a lifeline. Key assets to watch:

1. Oroforglipron: The oral GLP-1 agonist delivered positive Phase 3 results for Type 2 diabetes, with seven trials underway in obesity and diabetes. If approved, it could bypass the need for injections, capturing a larger market.
2. Lepodisiran: A genetic medicine targeting lipoprotein(a), a genetic cardiovascular risk factor, reduced levels by 94% in Phase 2 trials. This could be a game-changer for inherited heart disease.
3. Donanemab: Secured a positive CHMP opinion for Alzheimer’s disease, paving the way for EU approval.

Manufacturing & Market Access: Scaling for Success

Lilly’s $50+ billion U.S. manufacturing investment since 2020 aims to quench insatiable demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound. Four new facilities are in the works, but delays or cost overruns could strain margins. On the commercial front, Zepbound’s new vial sizes and savings programs for self-pay patients may boost adoption, while the LillyDirect platform expands access to Alzheimer’s therapies.

Risks That Could Derail the Narrative

1. Regulatory Delays: While donanemab’s EU path is clear, other programs like lepodisiran face lengthy trial timelines.
2. Competitive Pressure: Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and other GLP-1 rivals are nipping at Mounjaro’s heels.
3. Policy Uncertainties: The company assumes no new pharmaceutical tariffs in its guidance—a risky bet given global trade tensions.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Risk Gamble

Lilly’s 2025 outlook hinges on executing three pillars: GLP-1 dominance, pipeline approvals, and cost control. The stock’s YTD performance reflects optimism, but investors must weigh the risks.

• Bulls cite $11.2 billion in annual GLP-1 revenue growth (if Mounjaro and Zepbound trends hold) and the $94% lipoprotein(a) reduction in lepodisiran trials.
• Bears flag the $1.72 IPR&D charge and the 17% tax rate, which could shrink EPS by $1.5 billion annually.

The fireside chat with Montarce will be critical. If he confirms Q2 manufacturing milestones, provides clarity on lepodisiran’s timeline, or hints at EU donanemab pricing, shares could soar. But stumble on any of these, and the stock’s 2025 gains (up ~20% YTD) may reverse.

Investors should monitor the May 15 replay (available via Lilly’s investor site) for key takeaways. With a P/E ratio of 28x (vs. 24x for peers like Pfizer and Novo Nordisk), Lilly’s stock demands nothing short of perfection to justify its premium.

Data as of May 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results.