Elevance Health Surges 3.88% on Earnings Beat and Institutional Buying – What’s Next?

Summary
• Elevance Health (ELV) surges 3.88% to $294.49, hitting a 52-week high of $294.49 after opening at $284.00.
• Quarterly revenue of $49.42 billion exceeds estimates, but EPS misses by $0.46 at $8.84.
• Goldman Sachs boosts stake by 1.7% to $566.58 million; CEO Gail Boudreaux buys 8,500 shares.
• Analysts remain split, with a 'Moderate Buy' rating and $418.19 consensus price target.

Elevance Health’s sharp intraday rally reflects a mix of earnings resilience, institutional inflows, and bullish insider activity. The stock’s 3.88% surge to $294.49—its highest level since July 2024—has ignited speculation about its near-term trajectory. With a 52-week range of $273.71 to $567.26, the move suggests a re-rating of its value proposition amid a volatile healthcare sector.

Earnings Beat and Institutional Inflows Drive ELV’s Sharp Rally
Elevance Health’s 3.88% intraday surge stems from a combination of outperforming revenue results and renewed institutional confidence. The company reported $49.42 billion in quarterly revenue, surpassing estimates by $1.16 billion, despite missing EPS expectations by $0.46. This revenue beat, coupled with a 14.3% year-over-year growth, signaled operational strength. Simultaneously, Goldman Sachs increased its stake by 1.7% to 1.3 million shares, valued at $566.58 million, while CEO Gail Boudreaux added 8,500 shares at $286.94. These moves underscored conviction in ELV’s long-term stability, particularly as the stock trades at a dynamic PE of 8.45, well below its 52-week average of 11.76. Analysts’ mixed outlook—seven ‘buy’ ratings versus seven ‘hold’—further fueled speculative buying.

Options and Technical Plays for ELV’s Volatile Rebound
• 200-day average: $388.90 (well below current price)
• RSI: 53.79 (neutral, no overbought/sold signal)
• MACD: -19.83 (bullish crossover potential)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $343.95, Middle at $295.12 (current price near middle band)
• Support/Resistance: 30D at $274.66–$277.08, 200D at $399.28–$402.84

ELV’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with the 200-day average acting as a key resistance. The RSI’s neutrality and MACD’s upward trend hint at momentum building. For options, ELV20250815C300 and ELV20250919C310 stand out. The former offers a 160% price change ratio with a 33.01% IV and 90.40% leverage, while the latter provides 49.80% potential with 33.72% IV and 39.23% leverage. Both contracts have high liquidity (turnover of 67,150 and 76,765) and strong theta/gamma profiles, ideal for a continuation of the rally.

Top Option 1: ELV20250815C300
• Code: ELV20250815C300
• Type: Call
• Strike: $300
• Expiry: 2025-08-15
• IV: 33.01% (moderate)
• Leverage: 90.40% (high)
• Delta: 0.3467 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.5507 (strong time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0257 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 67,150 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside (294.49 → 309.21): $9.21/share. This contract benefits from high leverage and liquidity, making it ideal for a short-term bullish bet.

Top Option 2: ELV20250919C310
• Code: ELV20250919C310
• Type: Call
• Strike: $310
• Expiry: 2025-09-19
• IV: 33.72% (moderate)
• Leverage: 39.23% (high)
• Delta: 0.3485 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1829 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0109 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 76,765 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside (294.49 → 309.21): $9.21/share. This longer-dated option offers more time for the rally to extend, with a balanced risk/reward profile.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider ELV20250815C300 for a short-term pop above $300, while ELV20250919C310 suits a mid-term play on sustained momentum.

Backtest Elevance Health Stock Performance
The backtest of ELV's performance after an intraday surge of 4% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 51.30%, the 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 49.35%, and the 30-day win rate is 54.23%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.80%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that while there is a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the overall performance after the surge is not consistently strong.

ELV’s Rally Gains Legs – Watch for $300 Breakout or 200D MA Rejection
Elevance Health’s 3.88% surge reflects a confluence of earnings strength, institutional backing, and insider optimism. While the stock remains below its 52-week high of $567.26, the current trajectory suggests a re-rating of its value proposition. Key levels to monitor include the 200-day average at $388.90 and the 30D support at $274.66. A sustained break above $300 could validate the rally, while a pullback to $290 would test short-term resolve. Meanwhile, sector peer UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rose 2.16%, indicating broader healthcare sector resilience. Investors should prioritize liquidity and leverage in options, with ELV20250815C300 as the top pick for a near-term breakout. Watch for $300 clearance or a rejection below $290 to define the next move.