Elevance Health Jumps 5.28% In Two-Day 7.29% Rally After 20.9% July Plunge

Elevance Health (ELV) concluded the most recent session at $296.60, recording a significant 5.28% gain that extends a two-day rally totaling 7.29%. This follows a sharp 20.9% decline from the July 16th peak of $344.55 to the July 21st low of $276.45. The analysis below examines technical dynamics across key methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
The price action reveals critical inflection points. The July 17th–18th sessions formed consecutive long red candles, confirming distribution with a combined 20.6% decline. The subsequent July 21st hammer candle at $276.45 established a provisional support level, while the current two-day white candle rally demonstrates rejection of sub-$280 territory. Resistance is now evident at the $300 psychological barrier and the July 16th gap-down point ($302.45). A close above $300 would signal bullish conviction, whereas failure here may validate overhead supply.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration exhibits bearish sequencing. The 50-day SMA (approximately $345) resides below both the 100-day ($368) and 200-day ($395) averages, confirming the dominant downtrend. Current price trades 17% below the 50-day SMA, highlighting persistent selling pressure. Any recovery would first encounter resistance near the 50-day SMA, where sellers may emerge. The steep discount to longer-term averages suggests sustained recovery requires substantial accumulation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum following the July low. While the signal line remains below zero, the histogram’s positive divergence since July 21st suggests easing downward pressure. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator exited oversold territory (sub-20 reading on July 21st), with the %K line (41) crossing above %D (36), signaling nascent bullish momentum. However, neither indicator yet confirms a structural trend reversal given their positioning below neutral zones.
Bollinger Bands
Bands expanded dramatically during the July sell-off, reflecting acute volatility surge. Price penetration below the lower band on July 18th signaled an oversold extreme, which typically precedes mean reversion. The current rally has returned price to the lower-third of the bands ($280 lower band, $350 upper band), implying room for additional upside within the established downtrend. Band contraction commencing this week would indicate volatility normalization and potential basing formation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume validation is ambiguous. The breakdown on July 17th–18th occurred on elevated volume (7.4M and 8.4M shares), confirming capitulation. However, the current rally’s volume (3.5M and 3.2M shares) remains below the 20-day average, raising sustainability concerns. Notably, the July 22nd gain occurred on higher volume than the preceding down day, providing qualified bullish confirmation. Sustained advance beyond $300 necessitates volume expansion above 4M shares.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded sharply from 24 (deeply oversold) on July 21st to the current 42 reading. This relief rally negates immediate oversold conditions while remaining below the neutral 50 threshold. Though no longer warning of exhaustion, the indicator lacks overbought signals that would suggest a mature advance. This positioning allows room for additional recovery before technical headwinds strengthen near the 50–55 resistance zone.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the entire 52-week range (swing high: $567.26 on September 9, 2024; swing low: $276.45 on July 21, 2025) reveals critical retracement barriers. The 23.6% level at $344–$345 represents immediate resistance, aligning with July 16th breakdown levels. Subsequent barriers reside at $387.50 (38.2%) and $421.80 (50%). These levels converge with moving averages and historical price congestion zones, strengthening their technical relevance for potential reversals.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence exists at the $302–$305 resistance zone, where psychological resistance, the July 16th gap, and the 10-day EMA converge. This area requires volume-backed clearance to sustain recovery. Divergence appears in volume trends: while momentum oscillators support further upside, anemic volume during the rebound questions buyer commitment. Should RSI remain below 50 during subsequent tests of $300–$305, bearish momentum may resume toward the $276–$280 support. Probabilistically, the weight of evidence suggests a technical rebound within a primary downtrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, with the Fibonacci 23.6% level serving as the critical bull-bear demarcation.