Electric Vehicles at the USPS: Navigating Political Crosswinds for Strategic Gains

The U.S. Postal Service's (USPS) ambitious plan to electrify its delivery fleet—once seen as a flashpoint in America's partisan climate wars—is now a case study in resilience. Despite congressional attempts to derail the initiative, the shift to electric vehicles (EVs) remains a critical strategic play for logistics and infrastructure firms. For investors, the lesson is clear: partisan battles may slow progress, but they cannot halt the secular trend toward EV adoption in commercial fleets. Here's why the USPS's EV journey presents opportunities—and how to capitalize on them.

The Political Crossroads: Delays, but Not Defeat

The USPS's Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) program, led by Oshkosh Corp. (OSK), has faced relentless headwinds. Congressional Republicans, now aligned with the Trump administration, have pushed legislation to auction off newly acquired EVs and infrastructure, arguing the program is a “Green New Deal scam.” By late 2024, Oshkosh had delivered just 93 of 3,000 promised NGDVs, with production delays blamed on engineering snags and inflation-driven cost overruns. The political battle has cast doubt on the USPS's ability to meet its 2028 goal of transitioning 66,000 vehicles to EVs.

Yet beneath the noise lies a stubborn reality: the USPS's aging fleet is a ticking time bomb. Its 30-year-old Grumman LLVs, prone to breakdowns and safety hazards, cost the agency $160 billion in projected losses over the next decade if not replaced. Even critics like Senator Rand Paul admit the fleet must be modernized—just not with EVs. This creates a paradox: the USPS must electrify or spend billions on gas-guzzling alternatives. The latter would mean higher long-term costs and regulatory risks as climate policies tighten.

Why EVs Are Here to Stay: Logistics' Silent Revolution

The USPS's EV transition is part of a broader logistics sector shift. From Amazon to UPS, companies are adopting EVs to cut emissions and fuel costs. The USPS's move is no exception: its NGDVs, even with a $20,000 premium over gas trucks, promise long-term savings. EVs eliminate the need for costly part replacements in legacy vehicles and reduce downtime. Meanwhile, the cost of EV batteries has plummeted 89% since 2010, making electrification economically viable even for cost-sensitive entities like the USPS.

Political headwinds may delay the rollout, but they cannot reverse the economics. As shows, investor confidence in Oshkosh's long-term position remains intact despite near-term setbacks. Similarly, EV charging infrastructure providers like Blink Charging (BLNK) are benefiting from a secular trend: the USPS alone has ordered 41,500 chargers, a fraction of the 1.2 million needed nationwide by 2030.

Investment Plays: Betting on the EV Supply Chain

The USPS's program is a microcosm of the EV ecosystem's opportunities. Here's where to focus:

1. Oshkosh Corp. (OSK): The prime contractor faces execution risks, but its NGDV deal is a multi-decade revenue stream. Even if the USPS scales back, Oshkosh's expertise in military and commercial vehicles positions it to win contracts elsewhere.

2. EV Charging Infrastructure: Blink Charging (BLNK) and ChargePoint (CHPT) are key beneficiaries. The USPS's 41,500 chargers are just one slice of a $200 billion market by 2030.

3. Battery and Component Suppliers: Companies like CATL (CATL) and Panasonic (PCRFY) supply the batteries and electronics critical to EVs. Their demand is driven not just by USPS, but by automakers and utilities.

4. Ford (F): The USPS's 9,250 Ford E-Transits are part of a broader strategy for Ford to dominate commercial EVs. The USPS deal alone adds credibility to its $50 billion EV investment plan.

The Bottom Line: Ride the Trend, Ignore the Noise

The USPS's EV program is a political lightning rod, but it's also a reminder: secular trends outlast partisan politics. Even if Republicans succeed in cutting funding, the USPS will still need to replace its fleet. EVs are the most cost-effective path forward. For investors, the message is clear: look past the headlines and focus on companies positioned to benefit from logistics electrification. The NGDV delays may hurt short-term profits, but the long-term winners will be those that dominate the EV supply chain.

As the USPS's first NGDVs hit the road in Athens, Georgia, and Stockton, California, the writing is on the wall. EVs are not a “Democratic” or “Republican” issue—they're a logistics revolution.

Investment Thesis: Buy into EV infrastructure and supply chain leaders. The USPS's EV program may stumble, but the broader shift to electrification is unstoppable.