Electric Air Taxi Showdown: Why Joby Aviation Outpaces Archer in the eVTOL Race

The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) sector, once a futuristic dream, is now a battleground for companies vying to redefine urban mobility. Among the most scrutinized players are Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Archer Aviation (ACHR), both racing to secure FAA certification and capture early market share. However, a critical analysis by Grizzly Research in 2025 paints a stark contrast between the two: while Joby is lauded for its technical rigor and regulatory progress, Archer faces accusations of overpromising and underdelivering. For investors, the divergence in their trajectories offers a masterclass in how regulatory readiness, technical viability, and operational transparency can determine success in high-stakes innovation sectors.

Regulatory Progress: Joby's FAA-Centric Strategy vs. Archer's Global Gambit

Joby Aviation has positioned itself as the eVTOL industry's most FAA-ready contender. As of Q3 2025, the company has completed 70% of Stage 4 (Testing & Analysis) in the FAA's five-stage certification process, with the FAA's own progress at 50%. This places Joby in the Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) phase, where FAA pilots will soon evaluate its S4 aircraft. The company's vertically integrated model—designing, manufacturing, and testing in-house—has accelerated compliance with FAA standards, including static load testing and sensor calibration. By Q4 2025, Joby expects to begin TIA flight testing, a critical step toward 2026 commercial operations.

Archer, by contrast, lags significantly. Its FAA Type Certification for the Midnight eVTOL is only 15% complete as of August 2025, despite securing foundational certifications like Part 135 (air carrier) and Part 141 (pilot training). While Archer's participation in a five-country alliance (U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada, New Zealand) aims to streamline global certification, this approach risks diluting focus on U.S. regulatory hurdles. Grizzly Research warns that Archer's reliance on international partnerships may mask its inability to meet FAA's stringent safety protocols for piloted operations.

Technical Viability: Substance vs. Spectacle

Grizzly Research's bearish stance on Archer hinges on its critique of the Midnight aircraft as “lipstick on a pig”—a product that prioritizes marketing over engineering. The report highlights Archer's Abu Dhabi display as a PR stunt rather than a technical milestone, noting that the company's longest piloted flight (55 miles at 126 mph) pales against Joby's 21 full-transition flights in Dubai under extreme conditions. Joby's S4, meanwhile, has demonstrated structural integrity through load testing exceeding expected flight loads and has secured FAA acceptance of over half its test plans.

Joby's technical credibility is further bolstered by its strategic acquisitions, including Blade Air Mobility, which provides immediate access to high-demand urban corridors. Archer, meanwhile, faces skepticism over its $6B order book, with Grizzly Research alleging inflated commitments and a lack of binding contracts. The U.S. Air Force's $142M contract for Midnight aircraft in 2024 is a rare validation, but it remains a niche market compared to Joby's broader commercial and defense partnerships.

Operational Transparency: Trust vs. Skepticism

Transparency in operations and financials is another key differentiator. Joby's Q2 2025 net loss of $325M, while significant, is offset by $991M in cash reserves and a $250M investment from Toyota. The company's production roadmap—scaling from 24 to 500 aircraft annually by 2032—is underpinned by tangible infrastructure, including a 435,500-square-foot production facility in California.

Archer, however, has drawn criticism for opaque financials and a $206M Q2 2025 net loss despite $1.7B in liquidity. Grizzly Research argues that Archer's focus on high-profile events (e.g., the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics) distracts from its operational shortcomings. The company's recent defense acquisitions, while promising, have yet to translate into revenue or regulatory clarity.

Investment Implications: Positioning for Long-Term Gains

For investors, the contrast between Joby and Archer underscores the importance of prioritizing companies with robust regulatory progress, technical depth, and transparent operations. Joby's disciplined approach to FAA certification, combined with its vertically integrated model and strategic partnerships, positions it as a safer bet in a sector prone to overhyped narratives. Archer, while benefiting from global alliances and defense contracts, faces mounting skepticism about its ability to deliver on commercial promises.

Grizzly Research's “Nikola of the skies” label for Archer is a cautionary tale for investors wary of style-over-substance plays. While the eVTOL sector's long-term potential remains intact, the companies that will dominate it are those that align with regulatory realities and technical excellence—qualities Joby has consistently demonstrated.

Conclusion: The Sky's the Limit—But Only for the Prepared

The eVTOL industry is at a pivotal inflection point, with regulatory approvals and technical milestones determining which companies will lead the air taxi revolution. Joby Aviation's methodical progress toward FAA certification, coupled with its operational transparency and strategic acquisitions, makes it a compelling long-term investment. Archer, despite its global ambitions, must address lingering doubts about its technical viability and order book credibility. For investors seeking to navigate the eVTOL sector's turbulence, the lesson is clear: bet on substance, not spectacle.