Electoral Uncertainty in Ivory Coast: A Crossroads for Investment Opportunities and Political Stability

The exclusion of Tidjane Thiam, former CEO of Credit Suisse and leader of Côte d’Ivoire’s historic PDCI-RDA party, from the 2025 presidential race due to a French citizenship dispute has sent shockwaves through the country’s political arena. While the legal battle hinges on interpretations of nationality laws, its implications stretch far beyond the courtroom, shaping the trajectory of Ivory Coast’s stability, governance, and investment climate. For investors, this decision marks a critical juncture: a nation at the crossroads of reformist promise and entrenched political risk.

The Political Fallout: A Weakened Opposition and Electoral Fragility

Thiam’s potential exclusion undermines the Coalition for a Peaceful Alternation (CAP), a fragile alliance of 25 opposition parties. As the PDCI-RDA’s nominee, Thiam’s international stature and financial expertise positioned him as a unifying figure capable of challenging President Alassane Ouattara’s ruling RHDP coalition. Without him, the CAP risks splintering into factions, diluting its electoral weight and ceding ground to hardline candidates like Laurent Gbagbo or Charles Blé Goudé. This disunity could embolden the RHDP to press for a fourth term for Ouattara—a move already controversial due to constitutional term limits—further consolidating power in Abidjan.

The political turmoil reverberates beyond the ballot box. Opposition leaders have accused the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) of bias, citing its handling of Thiam’s case as evidence of institutional favoritism. Such accusations risk delegitimizing the entire electoral process, echoing the post-2010 crisis that left thousands dead. With protests already flaring over similar grievances, investors face heightened risks of civil unrest and policy uncertainty—a stark reminder that Ivory Coast’s stability remains fragile.

The Investment Landscape: Resilience Amid Uncertainty

Despite these risks, Ivory Coast’s economic fundamentals retain strong appeal. Data from the World Bank and IMF reveal a resilient investment climate in early 2025, with foreign direct investment (FDI) surging 8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025. Sectors like renewable energy and technology—beneficiaries of recent regulatory reforms—have attracted significant capital, driven by tax incentives and streamlined approval processes.

Yet the Thiam controversy underscores a tension between policy ambition and political reality. While the PDCI-RDA’s leadership reforms (2023–2025) have liberalized ownership rules and prioritized sustainability, inconsistent enforcement and infrastructural bottlenecks persist. For instance, a 2025 report by the National Investment Bureau noted a 17% rise in FDI proposals but a 9% drop in finalized deals, highlighting bureaucratic hurdles that deter investors.

The $2 billion green energy co-investment fund announced in 2025 signals a strategic pivot toward sustainability—a move aligned with global ESG trends. However, only 30% of FDI projects have fully adhered to ESG guidelines, underscoring gaps in regulatory oversight. Meanwhile, the ruling RHDP’s dominance could slow reforms, particularly if Thiam’s exclusion strengthens its hand.

Geopolitical Crosscurrents: France’s Influence and Pan-African Alliances

Thiam’s French citizenship has drawn criticism from nationalist factions, who view his exclusion as a repudiation of foreign influence. Yet his removal also risks alienating Ivory Coast’s largest trade partner: France. The country’s ties to Paris—rooted in colonial history—remain critical to its economy, accounting for roughly 20% of FDI.

Conversely, Thiam’s sidelining could accelerate alignment with emerging pan-African blocs like the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which reject Western dominance. This shift could open doors to Chinese and Russian capital, though it may come with strings attached. Investors must weigh Ivory Coast’s strategic pivot against the reliability of its Western-backed institutions.

Conclusion: Navigating Risk and Reward

The exclusion of Thiam crystallizes Ivory Coast’s paradox: a nation with robust growth potential (GDP growth of 6.5% projected for 2025) yet hamstrung by political volatility. While FDI inflows and infrastructure projects signal investor confidence, the electoral crisis highlights systemic risks. Key data points underscore this duality:

• FDI Growth: 8% Q1 2025 increase, driven by tech and renewables.
• Policy Ambition vs. Execution: 17% FDI proposals vs. 9% finalized deals due to bureaucratic delays.
• ESG Compliance: Only 30% of projects meet sustainability mandates, exposing regulatory weaknesses.

For investors, the path forward requires a nuanced approach. Sectors like renewable energy and logistics—supported by clear policy frameworks—remain viable, while infrastructure projects in special economic zones (SEZs) offer stability. However, long-term success hinges on post-election stability. If the CAP’s disintegration sparks unrest or delays reforms, capital could flee to safer regional markets.

In the end, Ivory Coast’s investment future will be decided not just by its courts or stock markets, but by whether its political elite can reconcile ambition with accountability. The 2025 election is not merely a contest for power—it is a referendum on the country’s ability to thrive in an era of geopolitical flux. For now, the scales remain tipped between opportunity and uncertainty.