Elbit Systems Surges 5.43% Extending Four-Day Rally to 9.61% Gain

Elbit Systems (ESLT) concluded the most recent session with a 5.43% surge, extending its rally to four consecutive days and accumulating a 9.61% gain over this period. This upward momentum reflects robust bullish sentiment, supported by increased volume and decisive price action. The following technical analysis evaluates key indicators to contextualize this movement within the broader trend.
Candlestick Theory
The recent four-day uptrend is characterized by strong bullish candles, particularly the latest session’s long green candle closing near its high (454.9 vs. high: 468.08), signaling sustained buying pressure. Key resistance is established at 468.08, while immediate support lies at 444.43 (prior session’s low). A cluster of doji/spinning tops between mid-May (e.g., May 22–23) near 376–378 marked a consolidation zone, now acting as major support. The current rally faces psychological resistance near 470, aligning with historical peaks.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) at ~420 has consistently provided dynamic support during pullbacks (e.g., June 5–9). More significantly, the 100-day MA (~390) and 200-day MA (~350) demonstrate a bullish long-term structure, with all three MAs trending upward and the shorter-term MAs above longer-term ones. The current price (454.9) trading well above all three MAs confirms a robust uptrend. Recent bounces off the 50-day MA (June 10–11) underscore its role as a short-term trend validation level.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line during the four-day rally, confirming bullish momentum. KDJ metrics show the %K line (88) and %D line (83) in overbought territory (>80), suggesting near-term exhaustion risk. However, the strong MACD momentum divergence—where price made new highs as MACD trended upward without bearish crossovers—supports continuation potential. KDJ’s persistent overbought condition may foreshadow consolidation but remains aligned with the dominant trend.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the recent surge, with the price breaking above the upper band (currently ~440), indicating overextension. While such breakouts often precede pullbacks, the band expansion itself signifies strong directional momentum. The base of the bands (~425) now serves as immediate support. A mean-reversion pullback toward the 20-day SMA (mid-band, ~430) would align with typical volatility cycles.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 191% during the latest session (370,554 shares vs. 127,146 previous), validating the bullish breakout. This follows a pattern of rising volume on up days (e.g., June 11 volume: 156,017 vs. June 10: 105,050) and declining volume during minor retracements (June 12: 127,146). Notably, the May 22 sell-off saw elevated volume (611,834 shares), marking capitulation before the current rally. Current volume-price alignment suggests sustainable upside momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has climbed to 78, entering overbought territory (>70). Historically, similar overbought readings in early June and late March preceded brief consolidations but did not reverse the primary uptrend. The RSI’s higher low in late May (versus price consolidating near 376) highlighted strengthening momentum ahead of the current rally. While warning signals are present, RSI divergence—where price makes new highs without RSI confirmation—is absent, reducing reversal likelihood.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing low (376.53 on May 22) and swing high (468.08 on June 13) reveals key retracement supports: 38.2% (432.1), 50% (422.3), and 61.8% (412.5). These levels align with congestion zones observed in early June (e.g., 422–429). Notably, the rally stalled near the 161.8% extension level (470), a natural resistance area. Any pullback toward the 38.2%–50% band (422–432) would likely attract buyers, reinforced by the 50-day MA.
Confluence and Divergences
Confluence is evident at the 50-day MA (420) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (432.1), combining trend and harmonic support. The MACD/volume alignment reinforces bullish momentum. However, KDJ and RSI overbought signals diverge with price strength, suggesting near-term consolidation. No significant bearish divergence exists between price and momentum oscillators, but KDJ’s extreme reading warrants caution for short-term traders. Overall, the trend favors upside continuation after potential consolidation near resistance at 468–470.