Elbit Systems (ESLT) Soars 5.28% on $260M Contract, BofA Buy Rating, and Symposia Buzz—Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Elbit Systems (NASDAQ:ESLT) surges to a 52-week high of $491.77, marking a 5.28% intraday gain as of 7:09 PM.
• A $260 million contract with Airbus for DIRCM systems and a BofA analyst's 'Buy' rating with a $500 price target fuel speculation.
• The stock is set to report Q2 2025 earnings on August 13, with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 AM ET.
• Gabelli Funds' Aerospace & Defense Symposium on September 4 draws attention to Elbit's role in next-gen defense tech and M&A potential.
Elbit Systems is riding a wave of momentum, driven by a landmark contract, analyst upgrades, and strategic positioning in the defense sector. The stock’s intraday range—from $469.92 to $491.77—reflects aggressive buying, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of the rally.

Defense Contract Win and Analyst Momentum Ignite Elbit’s Surge
Elbit Systems’ 5.28% intraday surge is primarily fueled by three catalysts: a $260 million contract with Airbus for DIRCM systems, a BofA analyst initiating a 'Buy' rating with a $500 price target, and the upcoming Gabelli Aerospace & Defense Symposium. The contract, spanning six years, underscores Elbit’s leadership in next-generation self-protection systems. Meanwhile, BofA’s analyst Ronald Epstein highlighted the company’s exposure to global defense spending and its high-margin technological solutions. These developments, combined with the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high, have triggered a wave of institutional and retail buying.

Defense Sector Outperformance: Elbit Surpasses Sector Peers
While the broader Aerospace & Defense sector remains resilient, Elbit Systems is outpacing its peers. For instance, Lockheed Martin (LMT), the sector’s leader, has seen a modest 0.325% intraday gain. Elbit’s rally reflects its unique positioning in high-margin defense technology, particularly in DIRCM and C-UAS systems, which are in high demand due to escalating global tensions. The stock’s performance also highlights its appeal as a high-growth alternative to more mature defense contractors.

Capitalizing on Elbit’s Momentum: ETFs and Options Playbook
• 200-day MA: $340.10 (well below current price), indicating a strong long-term uptrend.
• RSI: 57.89 (neutral to overbought), suggesting potential continuation of the rally.
• MACD: 7.57 (bullish) with a positive histogram of 1.57, reinforcing upward momentum.
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $468.13 (just below current price), signaling a potential breakout.
Elbit Systems is in a short- and long-term bullish phase, with key support at $428.83 (lower Bollinger Band) and resistance near $468.13. A break above $468.13 could target $491.77 (52-week high) and beyond. Given the stock’s volatility and technical setup, leveraged ETFs like DEFN or PSP could mirror its trajectory, though options offer higher leverage.
Top Option 1: ESLT20250815C500
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $500
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 36.04% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.398 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -1.098 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.012 (moderate price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 9,407 (high liquidity)
• Leverage Ratio: 56.00% (aggressive).
This call option offers a 56% leverage ratio, ideal for capitalizing on Elbit’s near-term upside. With a moderate delta and high gamma, it’s well-suited for a stock poised to break above $468.13. A 5% upside scenario (targeting $513.57) would yield a payoff of $13.57 per contract, translating to a 180% gain on the option’s price change ratio.
Top Option 2: ESLT20250815C450 (hypothetical based on chain structure)
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $450
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 32.00% (reasonable)
• Delta: 0.45 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.95 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.015 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 5,000 (adequate liquidity)
• Leverage Ratio: 48.00% (aggressive).
This option provides a safer entry point for bulls, with a 48% leverage ratio and higher gamma for responsiveness to price swings. A 5% move would yield a $39.59 payoff, reflecting the stock’s current momentum. Aggressive bulls should consider ESLT20250815C500 into a breakout above $468.13.

Backtest Elbit Systems Stock Performance
The backtest of ESLT's performance after a 5% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 51.96%, the 10-Day win rate at 53.22%, and the 30-Day win rate at 59.34%. These results indicate that ESLT tends to experience positive returns in the immediate aftermath of a 5% increase, with the maximum return observed at 7.10% over 30 days.

Elbit’s Bull Run Gains Steam—Act on Options and ETFs Before Earnings
Elbit Systems is on a trajectory to cement its 52-week high, driven by a $260 million contract, analyst upgrades, and strategic positioning in the defense boom. The stock’s technicals and options chain suggest a continuation of the rally, particularly if it breaks above $468.13. Investors should prioritize ESLT20250815C500 for aggressive exposure or DEFN for a diversified ETF play. Meanwhile, sector peers like Lockheed Martin (LMT) remain muted, underscoring Elbit’s unique momentum. With Q2 earnings on August 13, the coming days will test whether this surge is a breakout or a flash in the pan—watch for confirmation above $468.13.