Ekinops' 800 Gbit/s Milestone: Capitalizing on Optical Transport Growth

Ekinops hit a technical milestone in October 2024, transmitting 800 gigabits per second of data over 757 kilometers of fiber using its FlexRate™ coherent transponder technology. This trial on Orange's long-haul network proved that existing infrastructure can handle surging bandwidth demands without costly new builds. The achievement aligns with operators' push for scalable, cost-efficient upgrades-especially as global internet traffic doubles every five years according to Ekinops.

Orange's involvement validates the solution's real-world viability. Operators prioritize interoperability and flexibility to avoid vendor lock-in, and Ekinops' open-system approach lets them incrementally scale capacity without replacing entire networks. While the trial demonstrated raw performance, deployment depends on regulatory approvals and carrier budget cycles-a risk for broader adoption. Still, the 800 Gbit/s/757 km benchmark sets a new reference for mid-range long-haul capacity, a sweet spot between short-haul data centers and transoceanic cables.

Market Growth and Demand Dynamics

The outlook for high-capacity optical solutions remains robust, anchored in substantial projected market expansion. The global fiber optics market, valued at $8.22 billion in 2024, is forecast to nearly double to $17.84 billion by 2032, growing at a steady 10.3% compound annual rate according to market analysis. This growth is fueled by multiple converging trends. 5G deployment requires massive fiber backhaul upgrades, while the relentless expansion of data centers demands ever-increasing bandwidth capacity within and between facilities. AI workloads, generating unprecedented traffic volumes, are a powerful demand driver for high-speed interconnects. Government stimulus programs aimed at fiber infrastructure further bolster near-term activity. North America currently dominates the fiber optics market share at nearly 40%.

Complementing this, the optical transport network (OTN)

market is likewise projected to expand significantly, growing from $27 billion in 2025 to $40.44 billion by 2030 at an 8.42% CAGR according to industry reports. The adoption of advanced technologies like 400ZR/ZR+ transponders for data center interconnects, coupled with the bandwidth surges driven by AI, are key enablers. Demand is further supported by government investment initiatives. The technology landscape is evolving, with Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing (DWDM) holding a commanding 62% market share in 2024, while components such as coherent transceivers and Reconfigurable Optical Add-Drop Multiplexers (ROADMs) represent over half of the market value. Long-term cost reductions through silicon photonics and expanded C+L band usage are expected to sustain growth. However, this long-term trajectory faces near-term headwinds. Broad-based capital expenditure (capex) freezes, particularly at Tier-2 telecommunications operators, have already impacted demand, as evidenced by a sharp 41% decline in Ekinops' optical-transport revenue in 2024. Furthermore, competition from wireless solutions, while currently a smaller share, represents an ongoing challenge that could moderate growth if it gains significant traction in specific segments. Despite these current frictions and regional investment variations, the fundamental demand drivers for high-capacity optical infrastructure remain strongly aligned with global digitalization trends.

Ekinops' Financial Position and Strategic Execution

Ekinops' 2024 financial results reveal a company navigating significant market headwinds while positioning itself for recovery. The firm reported total revenue of €117.7 million, reflecting a 9% annual decline. This downturn was primarily driven by a 30% drop in Optical Transport sales, pressured by post-pandemic overcapacity, slowing internet traffic growth, and persistently high interest rates affecting capital expenditure across the industry.

Despite the challenging environment, Ekinops demonstrated resilience through its Access solutions segment, which grew 11% during 2024. This growth was fueled by strong demand in European markets, suggesting the company maintained competitive traction where it mattered most. The real turning point came in the fourth quarter of 2024 when Ekinops launched its new 800G optical transport solution. This product launch directly addressed operator needs for cost-efficient bandwidth expansion and greater network flexibility through open, interoperable systems.

The strategic differentiation provided by the 800G solution appears to have driven a meaningful rebound in Q4 performance. Industry analysts interpret this late-year success as a strong signal for potential recovery in 2025. Operators are reportedly preparing for increased investment in high-capacity networks to support emerging demands from AI, cloud computing, and VR applications. While the full-year decline remains a concern, the targeted innovation in 2024 positions Ekinops to benefit from renewed industry investment trends toward virtualized, cost-optimized infrastructure.

Risks, Catalysts, and Investment Outlook

Ekinops' path to recovery faces significant headwinds despite promising catalysts. The most stark metric remains a 41% plunge in optical-transport revenue during 2024, reflecting deep-seated challenges in the telecom gear market. This collapse stems directly from post-pandemic overcapacity, slowing internet growth, and critically, high interest rates according to Ekinops' financial report. Furthermore, widespread capex freezes at Tier-2 telecommunications companies have hit mid-tier suppliers particularly hard according to market analysis. Export-control hurdles add another layer of friction, complicating international sales and supply chain agility. The competitive landscape remains intensely hostile, with giants like Ciena, Nokia, and Infinera dominating the $27 billion market and controlling significant share, especially in high-margin DWDM systems.

However, tangible positives signal potential recovery. Ekinops' late-2024 launch of an 800G optical transport solution represents a critical technological breakthrough, positioning it to capture future demand for ultra-high bandwidth needed by AI, cloud, and VR applications. This effort showed early promise, contributing to a noticeable Q4 rebound in the company's performance. Crucially, this aligns with a robust long-term tailwind: the global optical transport network market is forecast to expand significantly, growing at a 8.42% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, driven by data center interconnect demand (400ZR/ZR+), AI traffic surges, and fiber stimulus programs. The shift towards spectral efficiency is accelerating, with 800G-ready links expected to grow at a 14.5% CAGR as operators prioritize capacity.

The investment thesis hinges critically on operator behavior. Recovery remains contingent on Tier-2 telcos initiating sustained network investment cycles, which could be delayed by ongoing economic uncertainty and interest rate pressures. Execution risk is high: Ekinops must successfully scale production and adoption of its 800G technology against entrenched competition. While the long-term market growth trajectory is compelling, near-term profitability depends on navigating these operational and market timing challenges effectively. The 41% revenue decline underscores the fragility of the current position, making the pace of recovery a key watchpoint for investors.