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Egg Crisis: Avian Flu and Rising Costs Ignite a Protein Revolution

MarketPulseTuesday, May 13, 2025 5:42 pm ET

89min read

The global egg market is in turmoil. U.S. egg prices soared to a record $8.15 per dozen in early 2025—a 350% surge compared to 2024—as avian flu decimated flocks and inflation ravaged feed costs. With no quick fix in sight, this crisis is creating a historic opportunity for investors in alternative proteins. Here’s why the structural imbalance in egg supply is here to stay—and how to profit from it.

The Perfect Storm: Avian Flu, Feed Costs, and Flock Collapse

The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak since 2022 has been catastrophic. Over 166 million birds—including 127 million egg-laying hens—have been lost to culling and disease. Even as 2025 began, 35 million more birds succumbed, shrinking the U.S. flock to 304.5 million hens, 20 million below pre-pandemic levels. This collapse has turned egg production into a supply chain “cliff,” with prices hitting $8.15 per dozen in March—a 30% increase in Q2 alone.

But avian flu is only half the story. have surged 36% since 2020, inflating feed costs for surviving flocks. Worse, rebuilding flocks takes 12–18 months, and HPAI shows no sign of abating. Wild bird migration and backyard poultry farms continue spreading the virus, ensuring chronic supply shortages.

Why This Isn’t a Temporary Spike: The Secular Shift to Protein Diversification

Investors often underestimate secular trends until they’re undeniable. The egg crisis is no exception. Here’s why the structural imbalance won’t reverse soon:

HPAI’s Permanence: Unlike past outbreaks, this strain of HPAI persists year-round, with no seasonal decline. The USDA now treats depopulation as the only control method, leaving farmers with no tools to rebuild flocks safely.
Feed Cost Inflation: Corn and soybeans are tied to energy prices and global trade bottlenecks. Even if avian flu eases, input costs will remain elevated, keeping egg prices high.
Consumer Resistance: At $8 per dozen, eggs are no longer a “cheap protein.” Shoppers are already switching to alternatives, creating a $100 billion market opportunity for plant-based, lab-grown, and vertical farming solutions.

The Investment Playbook: Three Themes to Profit From Protein Diversification

1. Plant-Based Egg Substitutes: Beyond Meat (BYND) Leads the Pack

shows its struggle to gain traction—until now. With egg prices at crisis levels, the company’s plant-based egg alternatives (e.g., Just Egg) are a direct substitute. BYND’s R&D pipeline includes scalable protein isolates from peas and soy, positioned to capture a $20 billion egg substitute market by 2030.

2. Vertical Farming: AeroFarms and Bright Farms Redefine Supply Chains

Vertical farming startups like AeroFarms (private) and Bright Farms (BRTF) are scaling protein production in climate-controlled environments. While AeroFarms focuses on leafy greens, its model could expand to insect-based proteins—a $10 billion market by 2035. Bright Farms’ public stock offers exposure to hyper-localized food systems that bypass avian flu risks entirely.

3. Disease-Resistant Livestock Tech: Genus (GNUS) and Recombinetics’ Genetic Breakthroughs

Agri-biotech firms like Genus (GNUS) are engineering poultry strains resistant to HPAI. Its $150 million R&D push targets CRISPR-edited birds with immunity to avian flu. While not yet commercialized, this tech could unlock a $50 billion market for disease-resistant livestock. Investors should also monitor private companies like Recombinetics, pioneering gene-edited animals.

The Bottom Line: This Is a Multidecade Trend—Act Now

The egg crisis isn’t a blip—it’s a wake-up call for the protein industry. With supply chains broken and consumer habits shifting, alternative protein stocks are primed for a breakout. Beyond Meat’s $15 stock (down from $50 in 2021) offers a low-risk entry point into plant-based innovation. Meanwhile, vertical farming and biotech pioneers are at the cusp of scaling solutions that traditional agriculture cannot.

The call to action is clear: Diversify your portfolio with companies leading the protein revolution. Egg shortages won’t resolve quickly, and the winners here will dominate a $300 billion market by 2035. Don’t miss the boat—invest now before the next leg of this secular shift begins.

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