Edwards Lifesciences' Path to 2026 Growth: Is the Bull Case Justifiable?

The investment case for Edwards Lifesciences (EW) hinges on its ability to deliver on ambitious 2026 growth projections, including an 8-10% revenue increase and a $100 price target set by RBC Capital. With the company's stock currently trading near $82, the bull case appears anchored to its leadership in structural heart therapies, a robust product pipeline, and strategic acquisitions. However, regulatory hurdles and macroeconomic headwinds could test the achievability of these targets.

Revenue Growth Drivers: TAVR and TMTT Expansion

Edwards' 8-10% revenue growth projection for 2026 is underpinned by its Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) and Transcatheter Mitral and Tricuspid Therapies (TMTT) segments. TAVR sales are expected to generate $4.6–$4.9 billion by 2026, reflecting 6–8% growth. This aligns with Q3 2025 results, where TAVR sales surged 10.6% year-over-year to $1.15 billion, demonstrating resilience despite market saturation concerns.

The TMTT segment, a high-growth area, is projected to expand by 35–45% to $740–$780 million in 2026 according to company forecasts. Recent progress, including a 53% year-over-year increase in TMTT sales to $145.2 million in Q3 2025, validates this optimism. Edwards' pipeline further strengthens this outlook, with the FDA approval of the SAPIEN M3 mitral valve expected in early 2026 and a next-generation PASCAL system slated for Q4 2026. These innovations position TMTT as a key growth engine, though adoption rates for newer therapies remain a wildcard.

Strategic Acquisitions and Regulatory Risks

The JenaValve acquisition, initially seen as a catalyst for mitral and tricuspid therapies, has faced a significant setback. The FTC's decision to block the deal has forced Edwards to revise its 2025 guidance and absorb short-term earnings dilution. While the company remains committed to pursuing regulatory approval, RBC Capital's analysis acknowledges this risk but emphasizes that the acquisition's long-term value-enhanced R&D capabilities and expanded market share-remains intact.

Valuation Metrics and Analyst Sentiment

RBC Capital's $100 price target, up from $95, reflects confidence in Edwards' long-term growth trajectory. This target sits at the higher end of Wall Street's spectrum, where the median price target is $86.21 and the high is $101. The firm's valuation model incorporates a P/E ratio of 33.9x according to analysts, a premium to industry averages, but is justified by Edwards' dominant market position and recurring revenue streams. A discounted cash flow analysis, based on analysts' estimates, suggests the stock could reach $102 by 2027, assuming consistent margin performance.

However, skepticism persists. The FTC's intervention and potential tariff impacts highlight execution risks. Additionally, the company's 2026 guidance assumes constant currency growth, which may not materialize in a volatile FX environment.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on Innovation

The bull case for Edwards Lifesciences is underpinned by its leadership in TAVR, a high-growth TMTT segment, and a robust product pipeline. While regulatory and macroeconomic risks are non-trivial, the company's ability to adapt-evidenced by revised guidance and accelerated product launches-bolsters confidence in its 2026 targets. RBC's $100 price target appears achievable if Edwards maintains its current growth trajectory and secures regulatory clarity on the JenaValve acquisition. For investors, the key will be monitoring TMTT adoption rates and the pace of innovation in structural heart failure therapies.