Ecuador finance ministry estimates 2.8% GDP growth in 2025

Ecuador finance ministry estimates 2.8% GDP growth in 2025

Ecuador's economy has shown robust growth in the first half of 2025, with the Central Bank reporting a 3.9% expansion, surpassing initial forecasts. This growth is primarily driven by record-breaking non-oil exports, which have significantly reshaped the country's trade dynamics.

According to the Central Bank, non-oil exports totaled USD 14.491 billion between January and June 2025, representing a 21% increase from the same period in 2024. This marks the highest figure on record and is nearly USD 6.2 billion more than in the first half of 2021. Shrimp, cocoa, and bananas led the surge, with shrimp exports reaching USD 4.254 billion, cocoa shipments rising to USD 2.31 billion, and banana and plantain sales reaching USD 2.23 billion. Despite new U.S. tariffs, shrimp exports surpassed oil as Ecuador's top export.

In contrast, oil exports, once the mainstay of Ecuador's trade, dropped to USD 3.99 billion, a 11% decline from the previous year. Pipeline disruptions and refinery stoppages constrained output and weighed on crude shipments. However, total exports still grew by 11% compared to 2024, reaching USD 18.813 billion in the first semester. Imports also expanded, rising by 11% to around USD 11.38 billion, reflecting increased domestic activity and investment.

As a result, Ecuador recorded a trade surplus of USD 4.166 billion in the first semester of 2025, the largest ever recorded. This surplus strengthens the country's ability to pay for imports and maintain financial stability. Stronger non-oil exports bring in more foreign exchange, create jobs, and reduce dependence on crude oil. Higher imports of industrial inputs suggest greater capacity for future production.

The Ecuadorian Finance Ministry estimates a 2.8% GDP growth for 2025, driven by the resilience of non-oil sectors. However, the Central Bank acknowledges that fiscal challenges and structural reforms remain necessary to secure long-term growth. The mid-year data confirms that Ecuador's trade dynamics are changing, with shrimp, cocoa, and bananas leading the way over oil, and non-oil sectors proving more resilient drivers of economic activity.

References:
[1] https://www.riotimesonline.com/ecuadors-non-oil-exports-reach-record-as-trade-surplus-expands/