Ecopetrol Surges 6.16% on Intraday Rally: What's Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Ecopetrol (EC) trades at $10.85, up 6.16% from its open of $10.398
• Intraday high hits $10.945, nearing 52-week peak of $11.045
• MACD histogram surges to 0.071, RSI at 62.42 signals neutral momentum

Ecopetrol’s intraday surge has ignited market attention, with the stock climbing 6.16% to $10.85 amid a bullish technical setup. The move, fueled by strong momentum indicators and a breakout above key moving averages, has positioned EC as a focal point in the energy sector. Traders are now scrutinizing options activity and sector dynamics to gauge sustainability.

Technical Bullishness Drives EC's Sharp Intraday Gains
Ecopetrol’s 6.16% intraday rally is driven by a confluence of technical factors. The stock has pierced above its 30-day ($9.778) and 200-day ($9.179) moving averages, confirming a short- and long-term bullish trend. MACD (0.044) crossed above its signal line (-0.027), with a histogram of 0.071 amplifying momentum. RSI at 62.42 suggests neutral but ascending energy, while the price hugs the upper Bollinger Band ($10.303), signaling overbought conditions. This technical alignment has triggered algorithmic buying and retail follow-through.

Oil & Gas Sector Gains Steam as XOM Leads
While Ecopetrol’s 6.16% surge outpaces the broader sector, the oil & gas exploration and production space is showing strength. Sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) is up 2.54%, reflecting renewed demand for energy equities amid geopolitical tensions. However, EC’s move is more pronounced, suggesting idiosyncratic factors—such as its low dynamic P/E of 8.7—may be attracting value-driven investors.

Options and ETFs for Capitalizing on EC's Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: $9.179 (below current price)
• RSI: 62.42 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.044 (bullish)
• Bollinger Bands: $9.099–$10.303 (price near upper band)

EC’s technicals point to a continuation of its upward trajectory. Key resistance lies at $10.945 (intraday high) and $11.045 (52-week high). For leveraged exposure, the EC20260116P10 and EC20260220P11 options stand out:

• EC20260116P10 (Put): Strike $10, Expiry 2026-01-16, IV 40.04%, Leverage 217.30%, Delta -0.1238, Theta -0.0127, Gamma 0.2590, Turnover 565
- High leverage and moderate delta position this put for volatility-driven gains if EC consolidates.
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $11.39): max(0, $10 - $11.39) = $0. Neutral if bullish.

• EC20260220P11 (Put): Strike $11, Expiry 2026-02-20, IV 34.72%, Leverage 16.72%, Delta -0.5307, Theta -0.0118, Gamma 0.2898, Turnover 3910
- High liquidity and gamma make this put responsive to price swings, ideal for short-term volatility.
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $11.39): max(0, $11 - $11.39) = $0. Neutral if bullish.

Aggressive bulls may consider EC20260116C12 (Call) into a breakout above $10.945.

Backtest Ecopetrol Stock Performance
The backtest of EC's performance after a 6% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows mixed results. The 3-Day win rate is 50.98%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.35%, and the 30-Day win rate is 51.96%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.18%, which suggests that even though there is a higher chance of positive returns, the overall performance has been modest.

Act Now: EC's Momentum Points to 52-Week High Challenge
Ecopetrol’s technical setup suggests a high probability of testing its 52-week high of $11.045, with RSI and MACD favoring continuation. Traders should monitor the $10.945 intraday high as a critical pivot. The sector’s strength, led by XOM’s 2.54% gain, adds tailwinds. Positioning in high-gamma options like EC20260220P11 offers leveraged exposure to near-term volatility. Watch for a close above $10.945 to confirm the breakout.