Economists Foresee Higher Inflation, Deficit with Trump's Re-election over Harris

A recent survey by American media has found that economists predict that under the economic agenda proposed by former president Donald Trump, the inflation rate, government deficit, and interest rates are likely to be higher than those of his competitor, Vice President Harris.

According to the survey conducted from October 4th to 8th, 68% of respondents indicated that they believe if Trump were to be re-elected, inflation in his second term would rise more quickly than if Harris were to become president. This proportion is 12 percentage points higher than the survey conducted in July.

In contrast, the survey shows that only 12% of respondents believe that inflation would be higher if Harris were to take over the White House, with the rest of the respondents believing there is no substantial difference between the two candidates.

Furthermore, 65% of economists stated that compared to Harris's policy agenda, they believe Trump's policies would increase the national deficit more. This proportion has also risen by 14 percentage points compared to the survey in July.

The survey results were released shortly before the bipartisan policy think tank Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated that by 2035, the plans proposed by both candidates could increase the national debt by trillions of dollars.

However, at the same time, the report also found that Trump's tax and spending plans could double the increase in national debt compared to Harris. The organization found that Harris's plan could increase the national debt by $3.5 trillion over the next decade, while Trump's plan is estimated to increase it by $7.5 trillion.

In the latest media survey, economists were also asked about the potential impact of Trump's proposed tariffs on domestic manufacturing employment. 59% of economists believe that employment rates will decrease, while 16% believe that employment rates will rise in the coming years. The remaining respondents indicated that employment would remain unchanged.

61% of respondents stated that they expect interest rates to be higher during Trump's second term.

The survey also shows that 45% of economists expect economic output to grow at a faster rate under Harris's leadership, while 37% expect the same under Trump's leadership, with 18% of economists believing there is no substantial difference.

Currently, with only about three weeks left until the official election on November 5th, Trump and Harris remain neck and neck in the polls.

In the 248 opinion polls tracked by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Harris leads Trump by only 2.9%.