Echostar Surges 6.8% on SpaceX IPO Hype and Analyst Upgrade – What’s Next?

Summary
• Echostar (SATS) rockets 6.8% to $99.90, hitting its 52-week high of $100.50
• Morgan Stanley upgrades SATS to 'Overweight' with a $110 price target, citing SpaceX equity value
• Options bulls trade 13,000 calls vs. 1,010 puts, with the April 115 call as the most active

Echostar’s explosive 6.8% rally on December 10, 2025, has thrust it into the spotlight, driven by a mix of speculative fervor over SpaceX’s potential IPO and a bullish analyst upgrade. The stock’s intraday high of $100.50—matching its 52-week peak—signals a critical juncture for investors. With Morgan Stanley’s price target of $110 and a $11B valuation for SpaceX’s secondary offering, the question looms: Is this a sustainable breakout or a short-term euphoria?

SpaceX IPO Speculation and Morgan Stanley Upgrade Ignite Echostar's Rally
Echostar’s surge is fueled by two catalysts: SpaceX’s rumored $800B valuation and Morgan Stanley’s strategic upgrade. The firm highlighted that every $100 rise in SpaceX’s share price translates to $18 per SATS share, creating a direct tailwind. Additionally, the recent $2.7B spectrum deal expansion with SpaceX and prior $23B AT&T agreement have positioned Echostar as a key beneficiary of the 5G spectrum arms race. Analysts at Morgan Stanley argue that spectrum is an 'appreciating asset,' with Verizon and T-Mobile likely to aggressively pursue Echostar’s remaining AWS-3 holdings.

Telecom Sector Volatility Amid Spectrum Deals and 5G Expansion
The telecom sector remains fragmented, with Verizon (VZ) down 0.6% despite Echostar’s rally. While spectrum monetization is a shared theme, Echostar’s unique exposure to SpaceX equity and its role as a spectrum broker differentiate it from peers. Broader sector news, including Meta’s 2Africa subsea cable completion and 5G deployment updates, underscores the industry’s focus on infrastructure, but Echostar’s move is more directly tied to its strategic partnerships and speculative tech bets.

Options and ETF Strategy for Echostar’s Volatile Rally
• RSI: 90.07 (overbought)
• MACD: 3.498 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band ($100.50)
• 200-day MA: $42.87 (far below current price)

Echostar’s technicals scream overbought conditions, with RSI at 90.07 and price at the upper Bollinger Band. The 200-day MA at $42.87 highlights the stock’s extreme outperformance. For options, focus on liquidity and leverage. Two top picks from the chain:

• SATS20251219C100 (Call, $100 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 68.13% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 22.66%
- Delta: 0.516 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.4209 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0355 (sensitive to price swings)
- Turnover: 198,956 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($104.90): $4.90/share. This call offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet.

• SATS20251219P95 (Put, $95 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 69.32% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 40.70%
- Delta: -0.312 (moderate bearishness)
- Theta: -0.062 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0309 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 76,237 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($104.90): $9.90/share. This put provides downside protection with high leverage, suitable for a volatility play.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider SATS20251219C100 into a breakout above $100.50, while cautious investors should monitor the $96.13 intraday low for a potential pullback.

Backtest Echostar Stock Performance
The backtest of the performance of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SATS) following a 7% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals positive short-to-medium-term gains, with win rates and returns increasing across various time frames:These results suggest that the 7% intraday surge in SATS from 2022 to the present has led to favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 30-day return being the highest at 6.24%. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was 13.74%, indicating that there is potential for even greater gains beyond the initial surge. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the potential impact of similar intraday surges on their investment portfolios.

Echostar’s Bullish Momentum – Watch for $100.50 Rejection or Short-Term Pullback
Echostar’s 6.8% surge hinges on its unique exposure to SpaceX’s valuation and spectrum monetization. While the stock’s technicals suggest overbought conditions, the high implied volatility and liquidity in options like SATS20251219C100 and SATS20251219P95 offer strategic entry points. Investors should watch the $100.50 52-week high for a potential breakout confirmation or rejection. Meanwhile, the sector leader Verizon (VZ) dips 0.6%, underscoring the need for caution. Act now: Buy the $100 call for a bullish breakout or the $95 put for volatility protection, but exit if the $96.13 intraday low breaks.