eCash/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-03

• Price declined sharply from $0.00001493 to $0.00001332 over 24 hours, driven by heavy selling pressure.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Band width hitting a 24-hour peak in the second half of the day.
• Momentum turned bearish on RSI and MACD divergence, hinting at oversold territory in the final 15-minute candle.
• Volume surged past $10B in the afternoon, yet price failed to respond positively, signaling bearish divergence.
• A deep retracement below 61.8% Fibonacci support suggests further downside risk in the short term.

eCash/Tether (XECUSDT) opened at $0.00001462 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a peak of $0.00001493 before falling to a 24-hour low of $0.00001292. The pair closed at $0.00001332 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 24,732,889,000 units, while notional turnover reached approximately $3,338,306. The price action suggests a significant bearish shift after midday.

Under the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price, confirming a short-term downtrend. A long-bodied bearish candle at 03:15 ET−1 marked a sharp break below key support at $0.0000142, with a 15-minute doji at 19:00 ET−1 adding bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average on the daily chart continues to act as a psychological ceiling, currently at $0.0000146, but the recent intraday weakness suggests a test of the $0.0000140 level is likely in the near term.

The RSI-14 has dipped below 30, indicating oversold territory for the first time in over a week, but the divergence in volume and price suggests that this may not be a traditional buying opportunity. MACD lines are bearish, with the histogram expanding as the bearish trend intensifies. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in the last 6 hours of the period, and price has remained below the 20-period moving average within the lower band, suggesting high volatility and bearish dominance.

Fibonacci retracement levels show the price has moved past the 61.8% level of the intraday swing from $0.00001493 to $0.00001292, at $0.00001335, and is currently testing the 78.6% level at $0.00001306. This could indicate further potential for a pullback to the $0.0000130 range or even the 88.6% level at $0.0000127 if the bearish momentum persists. Notably, volume has surged during this pullback, suggesting strong conviction in the downward move.

The MACD and RSI indicators have both turned bearish, with RSI below 30 suggesting potential oversold conditions. However, given the divergence between price and volume, a traditional oversold bounce may not materialize as expected. Instead, this could represent a continuation of the broader bearish trend. To test this, a backtesting strategy based on the RSI-14 < 30 signal was attempted using the symbol XECUSDT. Unfortunately, the data source returned an error, likely due to an incorrect or unsupported symbol format.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering a long position when RSI-14 for XECUSDT drops below 30 and holding for one day. This strategy is typically used in equities and forex but is less commonly applied in highly volatile and low-cap crypto pairs like eCash. The results can be significantly affected by slippage, sudden price gaps, and low liquidity. If the symbol format were corrected and the backtest executed from 2022-01-01 to the present, it would provide insight into the effectiveness of RSI-based entry points in this market.