East Timor's Strategic Shift: Favouring Australia over Chinese Firms in Major Gas Project

East Timor's President Jose Ramos-Horta has publicly expressed a preference for working with Australian partners Woodside Energy and Japan's Osaka Gas over Chinese firms in the development of the Greater Sunrise natural gas field. This strategic shift has significant implications for the geopolitical dynamics in the Pacific region, particularly in relation to growing Chinese influence.

The Greater Sunrise field, located approximately 150 kilometers south of East Timor, holds gross contingent resources of 5.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of dry gas and 225.9 million barrels of condensate. The project is expected to have a minimum production rate of 150 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, making it a vital economic asset for both East Timor and Australia.

East Timor's preference for Australian partners over Chinese firms is a strategic move to maintain regional stability and prevent undue external influence from China. By favoring Woodside Energy and Osaka Gas, East Timor is signaling its intent to maintain a balance of power in the region and resist undue influence from China. This aligns with Australia's efforts to counterbalance China's growing presence in the Pacific.

The decision to stall approaches from Chinese companies, including state-owned Sinopec, and Kuwaiti firms, reflects a strategic choice to maintain regional stability and prevent undue external influence. Ramos-Horta's comments mark the first time he has publicly expressed a preference to develop the field with Australia and existing partners since he suggested doing so with new ones such as China and Kuwait last year.

The prospect of developing Greater Sunrise with new partners had raised concerns in Australia about growing Chinese power and influence in the Pacific region. However, East Timor's commitment to its Australian partners has helped alleviate these concerns and foster a more cooperative relationship between the two nations.

The Greater Sunrise project is expected to commence natural gas production by 2028-30, providing energy for domestic use as well as for exports. The project is expected to have a minimum production rate of 150 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, making it a vital economic asset for both East Timor and Australia.

The development of the Greater Sunrise field is crucial to the economic growth of Southeast Asia's poorest nation, also known as Timor-Leste, which gained independence from Indonesia in 2002. The project is expected to generate tens of billions of dollars in royalties for the Timorese state, filling the gap left by dwindling royalties from the country's existing Bayu-Undan gas field.

In conclusion, East Timor's preference for Australian partners over Chinese firms in the development of the Greater Sunrise natural gas field has significant implications for the geopolitical dynamics in the Pacific region. By favoring Woodside Energy and Osaka Gas, East Timor is signaling its intent to maintain regional stability, counter Chinese expansion, promote economic diversification, and foster strategic partnerships. These factors contribute to a more balanced and secure geopolitical environment in the Pacific region.