Earnings Season Update: Retail Bellwethers Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's to Report Next Week

Second quarter earnings season is winding down, with over 90% of S&P 500 index companies reporting results. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to rise 11.8% in Q2, after lower expectations of a 5% growth rate amid President Trump's tariffs and economic uncertainty. Retail bellwethers Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's will report results next week, providing insights into consumer spending. Other major companies reporting next week include BJ's Wholesale, TJX Companies, Ross Stores, Estée Lauder, and Zoom Communications.

Second quarter earnings season is nearing its conclusion, with over 90% of S&P 500 index companies having reported their results. Analysts anticipate S&P 500 earnings to rise by 11.8% in Q2, following lower expectations of a 5% growth rate amid President Trump's tariffs and economic uncertainty [3]. Retail bellwethers such as Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's will report their earnings next week, offering insights into consumer spending trends. Other major companies set to release their financials include BJ's Wholesale, TJX Companies, Ross Stores, Estée Lauder, and Zoom Communications.

One of the standout performers was Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), which saw its stock experience an unexpected upswing following the release of its second-quarter financial results on August 2, 2025. Despite broader market volatility, HOOD shares surged nearly 15% in after-hours trading as the company exceeded investor expectations with revenue of $485 million—surpassing the $430 million forecast by analysts—and significantly narrowing its net loss to $123 million from $187 million a year prior [1]. The improved performance came from cost-cutting measures, higher trading volumes, and better execution of its commission-free trading model.

The earnings report also highlighted a broader July operating update, showing the platform's funded customer accounts rose to 26.7 million, up 160,000 from June and 2.5 million year-over-year. Total platform assets reached $298 billion, a 7% increase from June and more than double July 2024 levels. Net deposits in July stood at $6.4 billion, with annualized growth of 28% and $60.1 billion over the past year. Equity trading volumes climbed to $209.1 billion, a 17% increase from June, while options contracts traded reached 195.8 million, up 16%. Crypto trading via the Robinhood app totaled $16.8 billion, more than triple the amount from July 2024 [1].

Robinhood’s recent acquisition of Bitstamp added $11.9 billion in crypto trading on the platform for July and expanded the firm’s institutional offerings, including lending and staking. Crypto revenue grew 98% in the second quarter to $160 million, continuing a trend of rapid expansion in that segment [1].

However, the positive data was not enough to prevent a drop in HOOD stock on August 13, which closed at $108.62, down 4.79% for the day. While the stock saw a modest rebound in pre-market trading on August 14, it fell back to $107.63 amid a broader selloff in tech stocks. HOOD had been on an upward trajectory for several months, nearly doubling from around $55 in mid-May 2025 [1].

Analysts have begun to speculate on a possible path to $230 for HOOD stock, based on continued revenue growth and margin improvements. According to analysts, revenue has grown from $280 million in 2019 to $2.9 billion in 2024, with projected figures of $4 billion in 2025 and $7.3 billion by 2027 if growth continues at the current rate. Improved adjusted net margins, now at around 35% in 2024 compared to negative levels in 2021, and gains from high-margin segments like payment for order flow and margin interest, are cited as potential drivers [1].

Despite these optimistic forecasts, analysts caution that such projections are not official guidance from the company and remain speculative. The broader market reaction to the earnings report was mixed, with the S&P 500 closing in the red while HOOD stood out as a top performer. The long-term viability of Robinhood’s business model remains under scrutiny, particularly given its high burn rate and dependence on favorable market conditions [1].

In the energy sector, Devon Energy's Q2 2025 earnings report highlighted strategic resilience through operational efficiency, AI-driven production, and $3 billion free cash flow amid energy transition challenges. The company cut drilling costs 12% year-over-year in the Delaware Basin while boosting oil output guidance to 384,000-390,000 barrels/day, balancing growth with capital discipline [2]. Devon reduced its 2025 capex by $400 million (10%), returning $405 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, while maintaining a 0.9x net debt-to-EBITDAX and $4.8 billion in liquidity. ESG milestones include a 50% methane reduction since 2019 and a $244 million geothermal investment, aligning with global climate goals and regulatory preparedness. Tax reform (10% 2025 rate) and a 12% EV/EBITDA discount position Devon as an undervalued transition-era innovator with $1.2 trillion clean energy market exposure [2].

The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter, driven by a turnaround in the trade balance and stronger consumer spending. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025, following a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. The latest data from the GDP report suggests that inflationary pressures are easing. The GDP price index rose 2.0% for the second quarter, down from a 3.8% increase in the first quarter of 2025. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, rose 2.1% in the second quarter. This is down from a 3.7% increase in the first quarter of 2025. This quarter’s increase in real GDP primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and increases in consumer spending. Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in the second quarter, up from 0.5% in the first quarter but well below the 2.8% pace recorded a year earlier. Both goods and services contributed to the gain [3].

References:
[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/robinhood-q2-earnings-surprise-drive-15-hours-stock-surge-2508/
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/devon-energy-q2-2025-earnings-strategic-inflection-point-energy-transition-era-2508/
[3] https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/08/u-s-economy-rebounded-in-second-quarter/