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Earnings preview: Will TJX outperform again?

AInvestTuesday, Feb 27, 2024 4:01 pm ET
1min read

TJX Companies, a dominant force in the off-price retail sector for apparel, accessories, and home goods in the United States, is on the brink of revealing its Q4 earnings. Following a quarter marked by strong comparable store sales (comps) and the stock achieving record highs, market watchers are keen to see if TJX can maintain its momentum.

Earnings Preview

TJX's Q3 earnings spotlighted a +6% rise in comps, propelled by an uptick in shopper visits. Breakdown by segment showed Marmaxx (US) leading with +7%, HomeGoods (US) at +9%, TJX Canada at +3%, and TJX International (Europe & Australia) with a modest +1%. Marmaxx, in particular, excelled with significant gains in comp sales and customer traffic, buoyed by robust apparel sales and exceptional performance in home goods, especially at HomeGoods.

A key strength for TJX has been its exceptional access to a broad merchandise spectrum from numerous brands, ensuring a continual refresh of its in-store and online offerings. This strategy positions the company well for sustained growth.

Historically, TJX has managed to post EPS results that often exceed expectations by mid-to-high single digits, despite typically issuing cautious forward guidance—a pattern investors might anticipate in the upcoming report.

TJX's shares have been on a gradual climb since May 2023, recently breaching the $100 mark to set a new high. The upcoming results are not just crucial for TJX but will also influence expectations for other off-price retailers like Ross Stores, Burlington, and Big Lots, which are scheduled to report soon.

Company Overview

Operating across the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia, TJX Companies has cemented its status as the leading off-price retailer in its markets, offering an extensive range of family apparel, home fashions, and other merchandise. Its ability to deliver brand-name goods at reduced prices through its vast global vendor network is a cornerstone of its business model.

Analyst Sentiment

Covered by 23 Wall Street analysts, TJX enjoys a consensus rating of Strong Buy. The company boasts a market capitalization of $113.09 billion and an enterprise value of $121.32 billion, trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24.51—a premium compared to the S&P 500's forward P/E of 18.7 but slightly below the Consumer Cyclical sector's average.

Conclusion

TJX Companies' impressive comp sales growth, buoyant customer traffic, and unparalleled merchandise variety underscore its compelling investment case. While its history of conservative guidance warrants caution, the potential for sustained earnings beats offers an enticing prospect for long-term investors. As TJX prepares to unveil its latest financial achievements, the retail sector and investors alike watch closely, anticipating the company's next move in its growth narrative.


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