Early Bitcoin Holder Selling: A Maturing Market Signal, Not a Sell-Off Warning

The recent wave of Bitcoin selling across all holder cohorts has sparked alarmist narratives of a looming bear market. However, a closer examination of on-chain data reveals a more nuanced story: this is not a collapse in confidence but a maturing market recalibrating its structure. While mid-term holders (5–7-year and 7–10-year groups) are realizing profits, long-term holders (10+ years) are reinforcing Bitcoin’s foundational strength. This divergence underscores a critical evolution in market psychology, where strategic profit-taking coexists with deepening institutional and sovereign-level accumulation.

According to a report by Glassnode, all Bitcoin investor cohorts—including retail, "fish" (10–100 BTC), whales (1,000–10,000 BTC), and mega whales (over 10,000 BTC)—have shifted into distribution mode, with the Accumulation Trend Score nearing zero or negative territory [1]. This synchronized move has historically coincided with bearish phases, such as January 2025. Yet, the broader context tells a different tale. The 7–10-year holder cohort, for instance, has realized $485 million in profits over the past 24 hours, reflecting a calculated exit from earlier gains [2]. Meanwhile, the 10+ year cohort now controls 17% of the Bitcoin supply—the highest share since 2019—while the 7–10-year group holds 8.1%, the highest level since the 2019 bull market peak [1]. These older cohorts are not selling; they are accumulating, signaling enduring conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

The 5–7-year holder cohort, however, has seen its supply share drop from 10% in early 2023 to 5% in August 2025 [1]. This decline aligns with the lifecycle of investors who entered the market during the 2020–2021 bull run and are now taking profits as Bitcoin approaches its next halving cycle. Such behavior is not abnormal—it mirrors patterns observed in prior bull markets, where mid-term holders rotate capital to absorb volatility while long-term holders remain anchored [5]. The key distinction here is that the 10+ year cohort’s growing dominance (now 17% of supply) provides a stabilizing counterweight to short-term selling pressure.

Critics argue that widespread distribution across cohorts signals fragility, but this overlooks Bitcoin’s structural evolution. Institutional custody solutions, sovereign treasuries, and ETF flows have created a new equilibrium where retail-driven volatility is increasingly offset by institutional-grade liquidity [3]. For example, the $1 billion in profit realized over the past 24 hours—35.8% from 7–10-year holders—was swiftly absorbed by market infrastructure, preventing a sharp price correction [4]. This resilience highlights a maturing ecosystem capable of managing large-scale profit-taking without systemic breakdown.

The maturation of Bitcoin’s market structure is further evidenced by the interplay between cohort dynamics. While mid-term holders act as "profit takers," older cohorts function as "price anchors." The 10+ year group’s accumulation, in particular, reflects a recognition of Bitcoin’s role as a store of value amid macroeconomic uncertainty. As the 2025–2026 halving approaches, this cohort’s growing influence will likely amplify Bitcoin’s scarcity premium, countering short-term selling pressures.

For long-term investors, the current environment presents an opportunity to reassess risk profiles. The synchronized distribution across cohorts is not a warning sign but a natural phase in Bitcoin’s lifecycle—a period where speculative capital exits, and foundational capital deepens. The market’s ability to absorb large profit realizations without cascading losses demonstrates its structural robustness. As the 10+ year holders continue to consolidate their position, Bitcoin’s trajectory will increasingly reflect the stability of its oldest and most committed stakeholders.

Source:[1] Bitcoin Dives As On-Chain Data Shows Every Cohort Now ..., https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1068890-20250826[2] Bitcoin Selling Profit Driven But $140K in July Is Possible, https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-analysts-say-market-quickly-absorbs-selling-paving-way-for-a-bullish-july[3] 2025 BTC Market Structure Report by Gemini and Glassnode, https://get.glassnode.com/2025-crypto-trends-report-2/[4] Glassnode: $1B in Bitcoin profit realized over past 24h, 35.8% from 7-10 year holders, https://www.ainvest.com/news/glassnode-1b-bitcoin-profit-realized-24h-35-8-7-10-year-holders-2508/[5] All Bitcoin Cohorts Shift To “Distribution,” Mid-Size Holders ... https://blockchainreporter.net/all-bitcoin-cohorts-shift-to-distribution-mid-size-holders-lead-sell-off/