E3 warns Iran of sanctions snapback if no August 2025 nuclear deal

France, Germany, and the UK have jointly signaled their readiness to reinstate international sanctions on Iran if the country does not reengage in nuclear negotiations by the end of August 2025. The trio, collectively known as the E3, emphasized through diplomatic channels and statements to the United Nations that the so-called “snapback” mechanism—originally part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—remains a viable option to reactivate multilateral sanctions without requiring approval from the U.S. or Russia [1][2]. This mechanism, which was weakened after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, is now set to expire in October 2025, intensifying the pressure on Tehran to respond [3].

The warning comes amid ongoing concerns over Iran’s nuclear activities. The country currently holds over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, a level that is significantly closer to weapons-grade material than the 3.67 percent allowed under the 2015 deal. Analysts estimate that if Iran chooses to pursue further enrichment, it could reach 90 percent purity within weeks [4]. The E3’s stance indicates a clear attempt to prevent such a scenario and to reestablish diplomatic engagement to address these nuclear concerns.

The potential reimposition of sanctions under the snapback mechanism would trigger a range of financial and economic consequences for Iran. These could include a return to financial blacklisting under UN sanctions, further devaluation of the Iranian currency, and a projected decline in oil exports, which have already been cut in half since 2018. Inflation is also expected to rise beyond current levels of nearly 39 percent, and the country’s GDP per capita—previously around $7,500 before heavy sanctions—has already fallen to about $4,500 [5].

Inside Iran, political divisions over how to respond to these external pressures are growing. While the president has expressed openness to negotiations, hardline factions are advocating for continued nuclear expansion. The intelligence ministry has issued warnings that a snapback could push the Iranian economy to the brink, increasing the risk of internal unrest and instability [6].

The next few weeks will be critical in determining the path forward. If Iran fails to respond to the E3’s offer by the August 2025 deadline, the snapback could be activated, marking a major escalation in the long-standing standoff over the country’s nuclear program. The E3’s stance reflects a shift toward a more unified and assertive approach, despite the absence of U.S. participation in current negotiations [7]. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain, particularly given the economic and diplomatic challenges that have emerged in the wake of prior sanctions.

The broader implications extend beyond Iran. The outcome will influence the future of the JCPOA and the global nuclear non-proliferation framework. It will also affect European businesses, particularly in the energy and banking sectors, which have been navigating the risks associated with Iran’s evolving sanctions landscape [5]. As the E3 moves forward with its warning, the international community is watching closely to see whether diplomacy can still prevail or whether the number of sanctions on Iran is set to rise once again.

Source:

[1] France, Germany, UK willing to reinstate sanctions on Iran (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-germany-uk-willing-reinstate-sanctions-iran-2025-08-13/)

[2] France, Germany and UK say they are ready to reimpose ... (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/13/france-germany-and-uk-say-they-are-ready-to-reimpose-iran-sanctions)

[3] E3 warn Iran: Sanctions return without August deal (https://www.jns.org/e3-warn-iran-sanctions-return-without-august-deal/)

[4] Britain, France and Germany threaten to reimpose sanctions ... (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/britain-france-germany-threaten-reimpose-sanctions-iran-nuclear-124607700)

[5] Iran faces renewed sanctions if nuclear talks don't resume ASAP (https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-faces-renewed-sanctions-if-nuclear-talks-dont-resume-asap/?utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication&utm_medium=RSS&utm_source=RSS_Feed)

[6] France, Germany and UK could reinstate global embargoes on ... (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/france-germany-uk-could-reinstate-global-embargoes-on-iran/3658467)

[7] European powers threaten 'snapback sanctions' on Iran (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/13/european-powers-threaten-snapback-sanctions-on-iran.html)