Duke Energy’s 2026 Q2 Earnings Call: EPS Growth Confidence vs. 2028 Timeline, Nuclear Strategy Shifts Unveiled

Date of Call: Aug 4, 2026

Financials Results

• EPS: $1.43 per share, up from $1.25 in the prior year

Guidance:

• Reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance range of $655-$680.
• Confident in earning EPS growth rate of 5%-7% through 2030, with expectation to land in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.
• On track to achieve full-year results within EPS guidance range.

Business Commentary:

Earnings and Growth Projections:

• Duke Energy reported earnings per share of $1.43 for the second quarter, continuing a strong performance in the first half of the year.
• The company reaffirmed its long-term contract to achieve a 2026 guidance range of 655 earnings per share with an expected growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030.
• Growth was driven by infrastructure investments to meet increasing customer demand and strategic economic development projects.

Regulatory and Strategic Execution:

• Duke Energy reached a comprehensive settlement in North Carolina, including a 9.8% return on equity and continuation of the multi-year rate plan framework.
• The agreement allows for earning up to 50 basis points above the allowed return on equity, reflecting a commitment to cost-effective service and reliability improvements.
• This strategic regulatory outcome supports continued investments in modernizing the generation fleet and improving service reliability.

Capital Investments and Load Growth:

• The company is executing on a record capital plan, deploying more than $1 billion per month to support additional generation and transmission needs.
• Duke Energy has secured 7.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, contributing to a total late-stage pipeline of 15.4 gigawatts.
• This substantial load growth is driven by strong economic development and interest from various commercial and industrial sectors.

Nuclear and Gas Capacity Expansion:

• Duke Energy is advancing nuclear efforts, with two Brunswick nuclear plants receiving subsequent license renewals and plans to file for a new nuclear project.
• The company is also expanding its gas capacity, with approximately five gigawatts under construction and an additional two and a half gigawatts in development.
• These efforts are in response to increased load forecasts and the need for additional dispatchable capacity to meet future demand.

Financial Flexibility and Dividend Growth:

• Duke Energy is on track to achieve a 14.5% FFO to debt target, with plans to reach 15% as growth accelerates.
• The company has a history of consecutive annual dividend increases, with a recent 2% increase reflecting its commitment to growing shareholder returns.
• This financial strategy ensures flexibility while supporting growth investments and maintaining an attractive dividend yield.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed strong confidence: 'more confident than ever that we will deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028', 'high degree of confidence in the 5% to 7% environment', 'extremely pleased with our performance through the first half of 2025', 'well positioned for a strong 2026'.

Q&A:

• Question from Char Puezza (Wells Fargo): With additional capex up to $10B and 15GW in late stages, could we see some upside to EPS guidance? How are you thinking in the top half of that range starting in 2028?
  Response: High confidence in 5%-7% EPS growth rate; focused on executing to land all 15GW of large loads, with potential for future updates if conditions change materially.

• Question from Char Puezza (Wells Fargo): Given Indiana's regulatory environment, would you consider a JNCO-type structure to bypass the CPCN process and flow savings back to customers?
  Response: Affordability is a priority; JNCO structure is being revisited as a potential option for customer protection and financing as large load pipelines advance.

• Question from Nick Campanella (Barclays): Regarding the potential $5-$10B of additional capital for large load projects in Florida and Indiana, how much is eligible to make its way into the five-year capital plan roll forward?
  Response: The $5-$10B is incremental and will be triggered when ESAs are signed; it is modeled for the remaining years of the current five-year plan.

• Question from Nick Campanella (Barclays): What bottlenecks or issues are you seeing on execution, and how should we prepare for the gas generation build-out?
  Response: Confident in execution capabilities; using programmatic approaches, EPC contracts, AI monitoring, and standardized sites to manage costs, schedules, and quality.

• Question from Julian Dumoulin-Smith (Jefferies): Can you set expectations on Indiana's regulatory process, especially regarding affordability implications?
  Response: Collaborating with the Commission; share common goals of reliability, low cost, and economic development, expecting successful outcome.

• Question from Julian Dumoulin-Smith (Jefferies): How do you see the nuclear roadmap coming together practically, especially from a commercial perspective?
  Response: Focused on maximizing current nuclear assets and extending licenses; exploring new nuclear but requires financial risk protections first; no timeline set for commercial decisions.

• Question from Carly Davenport (Goldman Sachs): What is the geographic breakdown of the high-confidence large load pipeline between Indiana, Florida, and the Carolinas?
  Response: The late-stage pipeline is primarily in Florida and Indiana, with some opportunities remaining in the Carolinas, Ohio, and Kentucky.

• Question from Carly Davenport (Goldman Sachs): Are you in progress on securing gas supply for the next phase of gas plants, and could that be a constraint?
  Response: Gas supply through the early 2030s is secured; confident in advanced planning for future supply chain, fuel, and labor needs.

• Question from Richard Sunderland (Truist): Are you thinking about pacing future equity, and would you consider upfront actions to de-risk the outer years of your plan?
  Response: Opportunistic on equity; leveraging ATM program and DRIP, but no large block equity planned in the five-year plan.

• Question from Richard Sunderland (Truist): Any update on the potential sale of the Caesar's coal plant in Indiana and how it fits with state goals?
  Response: A study on operating or selling the coal plant is being evaluated; focus is currently on getting the new gas plant operational.

• Question from Steve Fleischman (Wolfe): Any update on new nuclear thoughts between AP1000 large scale versus SMR, and involvement in long-lead time deals?
  Response: Keeping options open; focused on offsetting financial risks for any new nuclear project, including AP1000s and SMRs like the one at LEAF.

• Question from Steve Fleischman (Wolfe): How should we think about long-term cash flow as tax credit cash flow from nuclear and batteries ramps and new investments increase?
  Response: Earnings power has increased materially; accelerated tax credit recognition will catch up in 2028-2029, but returns on new investments will more than offset, maintaining durable cash flow growth into the late 30s.

Contradiction Point 1

EPS Growth Confidence Timeline

Contradiction on when confidence in the top-end EPS growth rate is asserted.

What are the key drivers of earnings growth this quarter? - Char Puezza (Wells Fargo)

2026Q2: The company has a high degree of confidence in the 5%-7% EPS growth rate. - Harry Sedaris(CEO)

"With the additional $10B capex and 15 GW late-stage pipeline, will EPS growth reach the top of the 5%-7% range?" - Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo)

2026Q2: The company has a high degree of confidence in achieving 5%-7% EPS growth, with performance in the top half of the range starting in 2028. - Brian Savoy(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

The JNCO/GENCO Structure Reassessment

Contradiction on the current status and need for a JNCO/GENCO structure in Indiana.

Char Puezza (Wells Fargo) - Char Puezza (Wells Fargo)

2026Q2: A JNCO structure was not previously needed, it is being revisited as a potential option... - Harry Sedaris(CEO)

What progress has been made on the JNCO structure in Indiana to bypass the CPCN process and flow savings to customers? - Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo)

2026Q2: The company is monitoring the GENCO structure option, which could provide an additional layer of customer protection and financing. It is something they may revisit in the future as load pipelines advance, but it is not currently needed to achieve their goals. - Harry Sideris(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Capital Plan Inclusion for Large Loads

Conflicting statements on whether the $5-$10 billion capital is part of the existing five-year plan.

Nick Campanella (Barclays) - Nick Campanella (Barclays)

2026Q2: The $5-$10 billion is incremental to the current five-year plan and will be triggered as ESAs are signed. - Brian(CFO)

How much of the additional $5-$10 billion in capital for large loads in Florida and Indiana will be included in the next five-year capital plan, and what execution bottlenecks or issues are being seen with the gas generation build, along with how they are being addressed? - Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan Chase & Co)

2026Q1: The company is confident in converting late-stage prospects (15.4 GW) to ESAs within the next 12 months. The focus on 'speed to power' has led to signing 2.7 GW in Q1 and more than half of last year's total, with more expected. - Harry Sideris(CEO), Brian Savoy(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Nuclear Strategy Focus and Timing

Shift from focusing on existing assets to exploring new nuclear options like SMRs without a clear timeline.

Julian Dumoulin-Smith (Jefferies) - Julian Dumoulin-Smith (Jefferies)

2026Q2: The nuclear strategy focuses on: a) Maximizing current assets... b) Filing a third site license renewal (SLR) application by year-end. c) Exploring new nuclear options (including SMRs) while emphasizing the need for financial risk protections... No specific commercial timeline is set yet. - Harry Sedaris(CEO)

Can you set expectations on the Indiana regulatory backdrop, especially regarding affordability implications, and expand on how the nuclear efforts are coming together practically from a commercial perspective? - Carly Davenport (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2026Q1: Nuclear is a priority, but the current focus is on maximizing existing reactors through upgrades and life extensions... No decisions will be made until these issues are resolved. - Harry Sideris(CEO)